If you wait for the enemy to strike before reacting, there are two possibilities: either you have already lost or, in the best case scenario, you will suffer serious damage. This elementary but effective logic of war explains everything or almost everything that has happened in the last few hours, that is, Israel’s explicit desire to strike those who certainly, irreducibly, ruthlessly, are engaged in hostile activities. The lesson of October 7 is thus beginning to bear fruit and the Israeli government is increasingly choosing to maintain the initiative rather than react to attacks. This is the truest meaning of the last twenty-four hours and it is also the most profound message that the military and political leaders of Jerusalem are sending to Europe and, more generally, to Western and non-Western allies. After all, to understand clearly what is at stake, just listen carefully to the speech given at the end of the day by the leader of Hezbollah, which contains a decisive element, or rather two (to be precise).
Hassan Nasrallah says first of all that the real target of the rockets was the most important military intelligence base near Tel Aviv, about 100 kilometers from the border between Israel and Lebanon. The “main target of the operation” was “the Glilot base – the main Israeli military intelligence base”, these are the precise words of the faithful ally of Iran and the inspirer of the movement that aims at the destruction of Israel. He then adds a second decisive element, when he recalls that “more than 300 Katyusha rockets were launched, with the main objective of keeping the Iron Dome system occupied, thus allowing the passage of drones that managed to enter Israeli airspace”, also confirming that for the first time the movement fired its devices from the Beqaa Valley, an area in the north-east of the country of the cedars.
So the picture becomes very clear and is made up of three elements. The first: the military offensive from Lebanon towards Israel is seeking a leap in level, showing the world an operational (and destructive) capacity much broader than that traditionally existing, setting itself strategic objectives of primary importance such as the vital centers of Israeli intelligence. The second: the main enemy of peace in the Middle East, namely Iran, is working against the truce in Gaza, choosing to raise tensions precisely at the hours in which very delicate talks are taking place with the mediation of Egypt, America and the main Gulf monarchies. Finally, there is the third aspect that directly concerns Israel and the strategy of the government led by Netanyahu. Well, here we must be very clear: the choice of the political-military summit is now drawn and involves the application of a newly minted doctrine, according to which it is no longer necessary to detect the enemy’s hostile activities on the field but it is sufficient to detect massive preparatory activities to react. In some ways, Israel is putting democracies in front of a political scenario that is anything but simple to manage, since the European and Western ruling classes have formed themselves around an indisputable principle, which foresees the possibility of reacting only if attacked.
Of course, some exceptions have been very evident in the past (from the Baltics to Libya), but here we are faced with a new world, one in which the political-diplomatic balance descends from the demonstrated and not just flaunted effectiveness of the military instrument. Israel tells us, despite all the dramatic relevance of the case, that the time for shaking hands is coming to an end, unless you carry a gun in your belt. All this may be a little inelegant, but it increasingly appears as a bath of necessary realism. From Brussels to Washington, from Rome to London, Paris, Berlin, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, let’s take note of this once and for all. The Russian preparations for 2022 were very evident, but they did not lead to any concrete counteraction. A terrifying war followed that has lasted for two years and of which there is no end in sight. There is not much to add.
#preemptive #strike #avoid #succumbing #Tempo
2024-08-27 12:32:17
