“Predictor” sees Kamala Harris winning

WASHINGTON (EFE).— A congratulatory letter signed by Donald Trump is one of the main memories that Allan J. Lichtman treasures of his infallibility: “I was one of the few who predicted his victory,” the expert tells EFE in an interview. whose prediction the Republican will not like this year, since it is clear that Kamala Harris will win on November 5.

“The keys predict that we are going to have a new and unprecedented president, that Kamala will become the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and East Asian descent, which in some ways foreshadows where she is going United States”, he points out forcefully.

Lichtman has no doubt calling himself the oldest and most infallible American election forecaster: “No one else comes close to me and no one has been forecasting for 40 years like me, no one has even a similar track record,” he says. His level of success: ten out of ten.

With a PhD in American History and quantitative methods from Harvard University and a professor at American University, Lichtman has been making predictions since the 1980s.

“I predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election in April 1982, almost three years before the election, when the United States was in the worst recession since the Great Depression up to that point and 60% of Americans said he was too old to run again. new and his approval rating was at historic lows,” he says.

He was also sure of the outcome of the 2016 elections, in which Hillary Clinton faced Trump and lost, despite being a favorite in the polls. “My system is unique, it does not look at the polls, it does not listen to the experts, it does not follow the events of the campaign. Look at the big picture of governance,” he explains.

And, at that time, “there were enough keys in play against the Democrats,” who were the party in power. In fact, “any generic Republican would have won.”

Lichtman was one of the few experts who got it right, a merit recognized even by Trump, who sent him “a signed note that said: congratulations, professor.”

The 13 keys

Lichtman uses his own method for his forecasts, that of “the 13 keys”, which he developed in 1981 together with the mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok based on an analysis of trends in presidential campaigns since 1860. .

“The keys focus on how American presidential elections really work and what the party in the White House has for or against.”

“If six or more of the 13 keys go against them, they are predicted to be losers. Otherwise, it is predicted that they will be winners,” he details.

The keys analyze aspects such as the results of the mid-term elections, the contests for the nomination of the party in power, the existence of third parties, the economy in the short and long term, social unrest, the scandal, the attack abroad or military failures and successes.

Only two keys have anything to do with the candidates themselves: whether they are unique in their generation and whether they are inspiring and transformative in their party. This year, Kamala meets them and “clearly, the keys to the White House predict a victory” for her.

Lichtman, who has a YouTube channel where he makes weekly updates of his forecasts, announced the forecast before the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Trump on September 10, because he wanted to make it clear that “the keys are not influenced by the ever-changing campaign events.”

They are based “on 160 years of history”, “they are the prediction of the North Star” and “they do not change” over the years nor with the arrival of new technologies, he says.

“They are incredibly solid. “They are based on history, but in terms of development they go back to the days of horse and buggy politics, when Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860, when women did not vote and African Americans were enslaved.”

Could you therefore change your forecast between now and November? Absolutely not, he says, because the keys are not aspects that are modified “overnight.”

At 77 years old, Lichtman says he still feels “butterflies in his stomach” after every election. “I don’t know how much longer I can do it, but I already have followers who have told me that they will form a committee to take care of the keys when I can’t anymore.”