2024-01-14 15:00:00
I know, I know. It’s bad luck or whatever to look ahead to the second round when the Detroit Lions haven’t gotten out of the Wild Card round first. But I don’t believe in all that. Plus, the Lions are three-point favorites over the Los Angeles Ramsso it’s human nature to look a little forward to see what the future may look like if the Lions come out of Sunday night victorious.
Don’t take this post as an early declaration of victory. Sunday night’s game once morest the Rams is going to be a tough hill to climb for Detroit. But let’s dream a little bit. Let’s look forward to the Divisional Round, and rank the three possible opponents Detroit might face if they beat the Rams in primetime.
Before we get into it, a couple reminders. Here’s a look at the current NFC seeding and matchups:
Remember, too, that the NFL re-seeds following each round. So the 49ers will play the lowest seeding remaining. That cannot be the Lions in the second round, because their seed (three) is guaranteed to be higher than the winner of the Eagles/Buccaneers game. So the Lions won’t play the 49ers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs no matter what.
They also won’t play the Packers in the Divisional Round. That’s because if Green Bay wins, they are guaranteed to be the lowest seed remaining in the playoffs and they will play the 49ers.
That leaves just three possible opponents for the Lions’ potential second-round matchup: the Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Eagles. Let’s rank them
Best case scenario: Buccaneers
How it would happen:
- Packers beat Cowboys
- Buccaneers beat Eagles
In this scenario, a Dallas loss would make the Lions the second-highest seed in the NFC, meaning they get another home game. Detroit already beat the Buccaneers handily in Tampa Bay, so welcoming them back to hyped-up Ford Field would put them in a pretty advantageous position to advance to the NFC Championship round.
The Bucs are arguably the worst team in the playoffs, finishing with just a 9-8 record, a +23 score differential (second-lowest among NFC playoff teams), and ranking just 18th in DVOA.
Second-best scenario: Eagles
How it would happen:
- Packers beat Cowboys
- Eagles beat Buccaneers
With a Cowboys loss, this game, too, would be at home. Some may prefer this to the Buccaneers, seeing as the Eagles are in free fall. Philly has lost five of their last six games, and their defense is a huge mess. They have the worst score differential of the NFC playoff teams (+5) and are pretty clearly down bad.
The only reason I have the Bucs ahead of them is because Jalen Hurts is the kind of quarterback who can give the Lions serious trouble, and I think their roster has no business playing as bad as they currently are. They have the personnel to turn things around, although I don’t know if they will.
Worst-case scenario: Cowboys
How it would happen:
If the Lions and Cowboys win, the other game does not matter: it will be a rematch in Arlington.
For worst-case scenarios, this isn’t all that bad. While Dallas has been unbeatable* at home, the Lions sure came close just a couple weeks ago. The Lions would be coming down to Dallas with a ton of extra motivation to get revenge for a game that was stolen from them.
I’d rather have the extra home game once morest two clearly inferior opponents, but I’ll take a week of revenge talk, too.
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