2023-10-16 04:00:00
Will Hezbollah manage to open a second front once morest Israel in the north of the country? Paradoxically, this is the worst thing that might happen to the Palestinians.
This is because even if Benjamin Netanyahu formed a war cabinet with the main Israeli opposition forces, the core of his government remains extremist.
In the late 1990s, Netanyahu actively participated in the collapse of the Oslo peace accords. Even today, Netanyahu colludes with the most extreme political fringes, Israelis who want to complete the colonization of the West Bank and begin that of Gaza.
However, several voices around the world, including that of the Chinese government, are beginning to speak out to denounce the attack on the Gaza Strip which is reportedly going beyond the threshold of reprisals.
A pretext to colonize
Increasing suspicions weigh on the Netanyahu government, which might seek to take advantage of the new war to accelerate the colonization of the West Bank or to begin that of the Gaza Strip.
An attack by Hezbollah might only reinforce Netanyahu’s war logic.
Hezbollah is an organization very similar to Hamas. However, Hezbollah has much greater military resources than Hamas. In addition, it is powerfully supported by Iran.
For Hamas, Israel’s war is lost in advance. The outcome of a war once morest Hezbollah, and therefore once morest Iran, is less certain. It would very likely inflict much greater damage on Israel than that once morest Hamas.
In other words, in such a war, Israel might more easily play the victim and therefore better promote the annexation of new Palestinian territories in international public opinion.
High potential for overflow
The regional spillover potential of the war once morest Hamas is limited, but that of a war once morest Hezbollah is very great.
It would be enough for the Israeli army to be in difficulty for American troops to intervene.
Conversely, Iranian leaders might conclude that a Hezbollah defeat once morest Israel would result in an intolerable loss of influence and legitimacy for them. They might therefore decide to directly send Iranian troops to fight once morest Israel.
Israel’s defense minister said Sunday that his country was not interested in waging war once morest Hezbollah. The Iranian government does not seem particularly inclined to start a war once morest Israel either.
But in recent days, Hezbollah has increased its attacks once morest Israel. Fanatical Hezbollah leaders might believe that the time for the final struggle has come.
And above all, Iranian leaders have warned Israel of a spiral of uncontrolled violence which might be unleashed if the attacks on the Gaza Strip continue. One way of explaining that Iran’s influence on Hezbollah has its limits.
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