2023-10-23 14:20:00
At 11 o’clock
This Monday, October 23, the blue dollar starts the day lower and if it sells for $1050, lAfter having touched 1200 pesos the previous Friday. For its part, Bonds also show a sharp decline in the pre-marketwith losses of up to 11% in the first round of operations following the presidential election.
Volatility in the market before the elections
The trend that had been verified last night with the opening in Asian marketsdeepened when transactions began prior to the start of operations in Europe and the United States. TAs indicated by the NA agency, the screens of financial operators point to double-digit declines with a firm trend. Thus, Argentine sovereign securities are worth, in some cases, less than a quarter of their nominal value. In addition, ADRs of Argentine shares suffer falls of up to 5%.
What is the market expressing?
According to economist Daniel Artana, the decline is due to thes doubts that the country’s governance may generate in the medium term. “The fall in bonds has an explanation because when you look at the economy in the medium term There are once once more doubts regarding governance”he evaluated.
In dialogue with the programto This Morning that drives Marcelo Longobardi on Radio Rivadavia, Artana spoke regarding the collapse in the price of national sovereign securities that in pre-marked operations fall up to 11%.
“Those doubts regarding governability were generated by (Javier) Milei, because he did not have a critical mass in Congress, and in the case of (Sergio) Massa, if he wants to organize the mess that he generated. The question is how he is going to do it in a bench ruling party dominated by La Cámpora,” he said.
The bond market, down
Besides, Lentini explained that The result of the elections does not seem to have been to the liking of international markets.
“International markets don’t like this! Sovereign bonds are falling in dollars,” He indicated in communication with PERFIL and added: “The AL and GD series fall in US quotes. If there are no austerity measures, conceptually there are no greater payment possibilities, Therefore the risk is greater and the bonds yield more, which is why: they go down,” he said. Is it to despair? he questioned. “No. This is Argentina and sovereign bonds are a risk asset,” held.
At 10 a.m.
Yesterday Argentina went to the polls, and towards the end of the day the unexpected victory of Sergio Massa was announced, especially following the good PASO election that the libertarian candidate Javier Milei had made. However, it seems that “the barrage of measures” designed by the Minister of Economy helped people decide to vote for him, so that now Sergio Massa will contest the runoff with Javier Mieli on November 19.
But The eyes this Monday are on the market and its reactions, because until yesterday many hypotheses and very high uncertainty were being considered, so many that no one dared to anticipate what might happen. Even conservative forecasts spoke of devaluation and the path to hyperinflation.
Without devaluation, Massa will seek to tame a market that will sustain exchange tension
Today there is a little more clarity. For example, the economist Salvador Di Stefano had already foreseen in his analysis yesterday that today there would be no devaluation of the wholesale dollar. ““It will remain at $350.20”he predicted and added that “the future October dollar did not move, which marked the result of this election for us. The October future dollar closed on Friday at $374.50″, said.
But he recommended that from now on we have to look forward. “The future November dollar today is at $427.0. If this dollar goes down, the market will be telling you that Sergio Massa has a chance of being the next president“If luck goes up I would be on Javier Milei’s side,” said the business advisor and recalled “Remember what we always say, the market speaks,” he stated.
Given the current context, Di Stéfano announced: “Without a devaluation of the wholesale dollar tomorrow, many prices are going to drop, and those who were left with merchandise to speculate will surely put them on sale,” he said. For the economist, theStocks and bonds would be on the rise. “The market should receive this result with a rise, Argentina comes out with National Unity, whoever wins,” he commented.
How the market closes in the last round before the elections
Regarding the future of exchange rates, he estimated that “alternative dollars should decline, and some fluidity of volume will once more be seen in the marginal dollar market,” previous.
What happened over the weekend with the crypto dollar?
The Friday before the elections, in the world of cryptocurrencies, the dollar was trading at $1,166 on average on the main exchanges, and reached $1,200. Yesterday Sunday, and with the results of the elections, It was trading at $950 on average on major exchanges.
This Monday, October 23, it operates at $935 and $995 at its selling and buying ends.
Many strategists noted that This might anticipate a drop in the price of financial dollars this Monday, October 23. It is worth remembering that in the PASO, before the victory of Javier Mileythe currency had skyrocketed given that the libertarian economist’s main proposal is dollarization.
Will the dollar fall sharply this Monday following the presidential elections?
Regarding the informal currency, it is also expected that it might fall following the victory of Sergio Massa.
The price of the crypto dollar collapses due to a runoff between Sergio Massa and Javier Milei
For example, the analyst Andrés Reschini of F2 Solutions, he does not anticipate that he will do so abruptly. “As the scenario is set out so far I don’t see a sharp decline. I mean, while we may have some downfalls, I imagine a high dollar since the two candidates who went to the second round are the ones who generate the most doubts in the market,” he told PERFIL.
And along those lines he advanced: “It is likely that Sergio Massa will continue to delve deeper into the policies that led him to this result and “That’s more inflation.”. he assured.
In short, for Reschini, a lot will have to do with the alliances that are forged in the political framework. “We will have to see the Next movements of Milei and Together for Change and what they generate towards the market,” he anticipated.
For his part, the financial advisor Lic Gastón Lentini, He announced that in this scenario “I assume that Massa is going to use the available resources to not devalue the official and evenwe might see declines in the CCL and the MEP (not intervened) so this will have an impact on the total value of the portfolios expressed in pesos,” he said. And he added with emphasis “I reiterate, it is possible that the cable dollar, the MEP dollar and of course the blue dollar will go down.”.
He also explained that for those who are investors, if the exchange rate drops, they will see decreases in pesos in their portfolios. “Many were surprised following Friday’s increases, but we should not be surprised if we have losses today. The important thing is always to measure ourselves in dollars, to avoid the emotionality of seeing more or less pesos in our total savings,” he recommended.
What’s coming for Sergio Massa
Regarding the challenges that Massa faces, Salvador Di Stéfano was forceful: “The government needs reserves to stop falling in these 28 days”. And he indicated that he has two very important challenges, namely:
- It has to pay the IMF US$2,627 million in capital debt in the coming days, and in November US$678 million in interest. He must also do well so that the IMF will disburse him US$2.5 billion in November. In December, US$914 million of capital matures.
- “To keep reserves high, the government might split the exchange market, in this way the dollar for export would be settled 70% in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC), while 30% would be done in the dollar Cashed With Settlement”, he estimated. According to his hypothesis, this might give a boost to the liquidation of exports, although there are few tons of soybeans left, 7.4 million tons of unpriced soybeans, and 11.2 million tons of unpriced corn, there would be room for a good liquidation before the end of the year. “To this we would have to add that this benefit would extend to all exports of goods and services. At today’s values of Cash With Liquidation it would be giving us an export dollar of $578, the added value in problems,” he said.
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