The recent elections in Portugal have resulted in a surprising outcome, with the ruling Socialists conceding defeat to a center-right alliance, marking a historic shift in the country’s political landscape. This election also saw significant gains for the far right, highlighting the growing influence of right-wing parties in Europe.
With almost all of the votes counted and the highest turnout in twenty years, the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) and the center-left Socialists were separated by a mere 438 votes, both hovering around 29 percent. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega Party exceeded expectations with 18 percent of the vote, more than doubling its result from 2022.
Exit polls initially indicated a clear center-right victory, but as the votes were tallied, the results turned out to be a photo finish, partly due to the surprising surge of the far right. By conceding defeat, the Socialists, who have been in power since 2015, sought to prevent the possibility of the center-right breaking its pledge not to enter into a coalition with Chega. Instead, it appears that the Social Democrats will form a minority government with the support of a party of fiscal conservatives that secured fourth place.
In light of the election results, the Socialists will now lead the opposition, with their leader Pedro Nuno Santos acknowledging that the analysis of the outstanding votes favors a victory for the center-right. However, it is clear that the far right, represented by Chega, has emerged as a major beneficiary in this election, pressuring the mainstream right to consider their inclusion in any new conservative government. Together with another conservative party, the center-right and the far right combined captured nearly 52 percent of the vote.
The significance of the Portuguese elections extends beyond the country itself and has caught the attention of political observers both in Europe and across the Atlantic. This comes at a time when former U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to reclaim the White House and far-right parties are gaining strength in France, Austria, Germany, and other European nations. The results in Portugal, therefore, provide insights into the political landscape and potential trends that may emerge during this electoral year in Europe.
Portugal, with its population of 10.3 million, has been grappling with issues such as political corruption scandals, a housing crisis, high inflation, and low wages. The election took place four months after the collapse of the Socialist government amid an influence-peddling investigation. Furthermore, the center-right Social Democrats faced their own financial scandal, which led to the resignation of two party officials. These circumstances have contributed to a search for alternative political solutions among Portuguese voters.
The far-right Chega Party, often compared to Trump, Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro, and French nationalist Marine Le Pen, cultivated a strong following among younger voters through effective use of social media. Chega’s anti-corruption message resonated with supporters, who also bought into the party’s unsubstantiated claims of migrants committing more crimes in Portugal. Led by André Ventura, a former sportscaster with a substantial social media reach, the party has faced criticism from fact-checking organizations for spreading misinformation.
The rise of Chega and its hardline positions have prompted other parties to adopt similar rhetoric. Luís Montenegro, head of the Social Democratic Party, has started to emulate some of Chega’s stances on immigration. Although Ventura has expressed willingness to soften some of the party’s extreme measures in order to enter a broad coalition on the right, Montenegro has consistently rejected the idea of a governing deal with Chega.
Since the fall of a right-wing dictatorship in 1974, Portugal has experienced several minority governments. However, like many Western countries, Portugal seems to be entering a new era of polarization and heightened political tension. The possibility of a center-right minority government is still uncertain, despite the Socialists’ promise not to oppose its formation initially. Considering the campaign focus on preventing Chega’s rise, it is clear that various forces are determined to shape the future political landscape of Portugal.
The implications of these election results are not limited to Portugal alone. They reflect a broader trend in Europe, where right-wing parties are gaining momentum and posing significant challenges to the mainstream political establishment. This trend should serve as a wake-up call to political leaders across the continent, urging them to address the underlying issues that drive support for far-right ideologies.
The Portuguese elections also hold lessons for countries worldwide, particularly those grappling with similar issues such as corruption, economic disparities, and the rise of populism. The need for political parties to understand and respond to the concerns of the electorate is crucial in countering the appeal of extreme ideologies. Additionally, governments should prioritize transparency, accountability, and socioeconomic reforms to address the root causes of public dissatisfaction.
As the world closely monitors the aftermath of the Portuguese elections, it becomes evident that the political landscape is evolving, with