2024-11-15 03:05:00
After five months of drought, October rains came a month later than expected, bringing relief to Córdoba‘s agricultural production. Adequate flows in parts of the province are helping to support declining wheat production and coarse grains cultivation with optimism for the coming months.
In the second half of last year, rainfall hit record highs in some parts of the province. This made the movement strongly active in agricultural areas.
Now, what are experts’ estimates of how optimistic they are that summer crops have already been sown?
It is worth noting that the water flow is good at the beginning of the 2024/2025 season. “The forecast was a little wrong, but it will be better. In Córdoba, rainfall was above normal and in some provinces above average. sound Agro is Tomás Kember, agrometeorological analyst at the local grain exchange.
“We don’t think this rain will have an impact on wheat, but it’s very good considering the situation with the summer crop,” he added.
In the provinces of General San Martín, Tercero Arriba, Totoral or Presidente Roque Sáenz Peña, the amount of accumulated water is much higher than historical values.
“It is important to emphasize this because the last rainfall in Córdoba was at the end of April. If the rainfall is below average, but this happens in June with 5 millimeters, this does not change the soil at all actual situation,” Kember clarified.
In addition to strong winds and hail (17.4 mm) in La Playosa, different towns in Córdoba also experienced significant impacts in just 24 hours: San Francisco received 44.4 mm, El Fortin 37.6 mm, El Fortin 37.6 mm Northern Lithia fell 35.2 mm and Belleville 30.2 mm.
In San Justo, weather factors brought the wheat harvest forward a week, something that had never happened before November 12, according to those who remember. Moreover, the estimated yield of 30 quintals per hectare increased to 36 quintals per hectare.
In addition, the optimism of producers who have already carried out intensive planting can be noted. Most people believe the weather will be good over the next few months.
In the core region, more than 25% of high-quality soybeans are already cultivated, although in areas such as Marcos Juárez, the share reaches 50%, according to Rosario Stock Exchange data. Rainfall has also boosted corn cultivation in this area southeast of Córdoba.
hope and caution
In addition to the recent rainfall, Kember also offered some warnings: “We have to see what ultimately happens and analyze the timing of the rainfall. 200 millimeters falling in one day is not the same as being distributed over different times. Overall, Rainfall is expected to be similar to average,” he added.
While October was great, November did not get off to an ideal start on water issues. The biggest beneficiary is the San Justo department, which has a healthy record.
sowing. In corn, the moment of implantation is critical for the seed to subsequently reach its ultimate yield potential. (Provided by Yingta)
Kemper confirmed forecasts for the coming months and highlighted the possibility of a “neutral” scenario in terms of the intensity of La Niña. “This neutral approach will continue next winter,” he said.
A “weak” girl
For months, experts have been talking about a “weak Nina” or “neutral scenario”, which would predict normal or below-normal rainfall.
“The temperature in Pacific waters has not reached El Niño yet. It is declining and trending toward girls,” said Kember, who remains skeptical about what will happen after January.
According to the National Weather Service, rainfall records in Cordoba during the November, December and January quarters are estimated to be between normal and below normal.
It’s worth noting that heat waves may affect crops as they did last summer. “As for heat signatures, forecasts, particularly in the province of Córdoba, are expected to see above-normal heat signatures at that time. The SMN report states that widespread heat signatures are also present in large areas of the north of the country, Cuyo and Buenos Aires. features and may even have very high peaks.
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Engineer Eduardo Serra, a meteorologist at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, said spring rains that would benefit the country’s winter crops are normal.
In addition, he warned that rainfall is likely to be light at the moment as strong polar winds carry away water vapor from the north of the country. They are winds that cause significant thermal amplitudes between minimum and maximum temperatures.
“It always rains in the spring, which is a phenomenon for winter crops,” he said, estimating the yields of wheat and barley in some parts of the country.
Sierra is skeptical there will be the expected “super bumper” soybean and corn crops in 2024-25. “I had my doubts. “We observed that this was a weak girl,” he said.
Experts say the phenomenon delays rainfall, so February may be short of water. “If it doesn’t rain in February, there will be losses. That’s the risk of this campaign,” he warned.
“A moderate Nina is coming, and not as much as the 2016/17 campaign had a huge impact. If that happens, it will have a big impact,” he added.
Regarding the producers who planted, Serra stressed that they planted with “good soil moisture” due to the October rains, but this was still a risk, as happens every planting season. “The producer had decided before. He knew it would be very difficult not to be able to plant, but the risk of what happens in the next few months is there,” he concluded.
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What impact do recent rainfall patterns have on the overall agricultural strategies adopted by farmers in Córdoba?
**Interview with Tomás Kember, Agrometeorological Analyst at the Córdoba Grain Exchange**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Tomás. We’re seeing a shift in Córdoba’s agricultural landscape following the recent rains. Can you tell us about the significance of the October rains after a prolonged drought?
**Tomás Kember:** Thank you for having me! The rainfall in October was crucial. After five months of drought, many farmers were concerned about the impact on wheat and coarse grains. The rain not only replenished soil moisture but also brought optimism for summer crops that have already been planted.
**Interviewer:** That’s great to hear! You mentioned that the rainfall was above normal in parts of Córdoba. How has this affected wheat production now, and what are the expectations for summer crops?
**Tomás Kember:** The recent rains will not significantly change wheat production this year due to its timing, but they have provided a favorable environment for summer crops. More than 25% of high-quality soybeans are already planted, with some areas reporting as high as 50%. That speaks volumes about the optimism among producers.
**Interviewer:** It’s impressive that the harvest season has shifted to earlier dates in some regions, such as San Justo. Could you explain the implications of this change?
**Tomás Kember:** Absolutely. Historically, the wheat harvest in San Justo did not occur before November 12. With an estimated yield increase from 30 to 36 quintals per hectare, this earlier harvest could indicate not only better crop performance but also a shift in farming strategies to adapt to changing weather patterns.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned some concerns regarding rainfall distribution. Can you elaborate on this?
**Tomás Kember:** Certainly. While October was beneficial, we must monitor how rainfall is distributed over the coming months. Flooding from too much rain in a single day can harm crops, while regular, moderate rainfall is optimal for sustaining soil moisture. We are looking at a potentially neutral weather pattern, but we remain cautious going forward.
**Interviewer:** Looking ahead, with the mention of a “weak La Niña” scenario, how might this affect farmers’ strategies in the coming months?
**Tomás Kember:** Farmers will need to remain adaptable. We are forecasting normal to below-normal rainfall through the end of the year, which could lead to heat waves affecting crops, similar to last summer. This could prompt farmers to consider drought-resistant practices and crop management strategies to mitigate potential losses.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Tomás, for your insights on this evolving situation. It certainly sounds like a time of cautious optimism for Córdoba’s agriculture.
**Tomás Kember:** Thank you for having me! It’s vital for us to stay informed and prepared as we navigate these changes in agriculture.
