Polls predict defeat for Macron in French parliamentary elections

PARIS, France.- This Sunday, according to voting estimates published at the close of the polls, the party National Grouping (RN) of Marine Le Pen would have won the first round of the French legislative elections.

One of the projections suggests that the RN party might even achieve an absolute majority in the second round on July 7.

The RN and some conservative allies would have obtained between 33 and 34.5% of the votes this Sunday, while the New Popular Front (NFP), on the left, would take between 28.1 and 28.5%.

Further away would be the macronista blockwith between 20.3 and 22.5%, while the conservative The Republicans (LR) would have achieved 10% of the votes.

Forecasts for the second round

A person casts his vote in the first round of France’s snap parliamentary elections, in Paris, Sunday, June 30, 2024. Credit: EFE/EPA/MOHAMMED BADRA

The RN and its allies might reach the absolute majority of the National Assemblywhich stands at 289 deputies, according to two of the projections for the second round.

Elabe’s projection gives it 260-310 seats, while Ipsos’s forecast predicts 230-280, and the third, from Ifop, puts it at 240-270 deputies. Until now, it had only 88 deputies.

The NFP would have 115-200 seats, while the Macronist bloc would collapse, falling to 60-100 (it had 250 so far), according to the three projections. The conservative Les Républiques would have 30-61 seats.

Voter turnout is believed to have reached 65.8-69%, the highest rate for a first round of legislative elections since 1981, in a sign of the great interest generated by the early voting among the French.

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