2023-07-23 02:55:00
“We believe that we are going to win, by a little. But the truth is that no one portrays us with certainty where people are going. The confession of a key leader in one of the leading presidential campaigns exemplifies the degree of disorientation that reigns, both in the ruling party and in the opposition.
To the concern of a large part of the leadership for the very complex current socioeconomic situation, and worse the one that the administration that assumes the 10-D will inherit, is added the current proselytizing journey in quicksands. As if the PASS in three weeks were a kind of blind date with the electorate.
The very politics that pay for them, consume them and use them as propaganda, attributes this lack of compass to the overwhelming dissociation between the polls and the results in the elections.
The most recent example was exhibited just a week ago no less than in Santa Fe, the third district with the most voters in the country. Maximiliano Pullaro won the PASO for governor with a difference of 11 points over Carolina Losada. All the polls gave a victory by a narrow margin or a technical tie. More: the local expression of JxC that included the two mentioned and socialism outperformed the Peronism that governs the province by 35 points, if all its expressions are added. Nor did anyone anticipate such a debacle.
Although it is usually inappropriate to project a local election to what can happen at the country level, in Santa Fe the national coalitions –especially JxC– replicated the general dispute like never before. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta played for the radical Pullaro, Patricia Bullrich for the radical Losada, who had linked her rival to drug trafficking.
From this event, certain central questions are opened.
- Does the success of Pullaro (who alone got more votes than all of Peronism together) expresses that the campaign is more for the proposals and territorial construction than for the shouts, the disqualifications or the denunciations?
- Is there then a logic in which a silent majority – that does not respond to surveys and uses social networks without being interested in expressing political views – makes Larreta take precedence over Bullrich?
- In the so-called core zone of the country, a beating is coming once morest anyone who represents the national ruling party? (Footnote: pay attention to what happens in these hours with the election in the mayor of the city of Córdoba).
- Do the two main fronts tend to polarize and leave other options without much scope? Javier Milei did not present a candidate, despite the fact that a liberal ticket obtained 3%.
- Will absenteeism and the negative vote (blank and null) maintain their prominence or will they go towards the generals and the possible ballottage?
The political confusion is such that these questions are raised without answers, especially in the electoral laboratories of each force.
Perhaps that is why everyone maintains their strategies. It is groping, intuitively, with an emphasis on the construction –or overacting– of the character in search of the vote. It’s like jumping into the pool without checking if there is water. In public they say the opposite. Thus, and despite the Santa Fe electoral slap, Bullrich maintained his belligerent tone. He sent his closest leaders (Ritondo, Grindetti, Angelici) to complain by letter to Larreta regarding a radio statement by a lilista deputy, who compared a possible management of Bullrich with December 2001. In addition, it was once morest a surprise stoppage of the Buenos Aires subway (yes, where the PRO has governed for 16 years and Larreta for 8) with his catchphrase “with me, this is over.”
Larreta clings to her script. He avoids releasing his good vibes manual (“I am never going to attack someone from JxC”), consensus and proposals, even if one of them is to move the Army to the borders, in order to move the Gendarmerie to the hot areas of drug trafficking in Rosario, Córdoba and Greater Buenos Aires.
Massa tries to sustain his complex logic as a minister-candidate. For these hours, she is more exposed to the launch of collection measures so that the IMF agrees to agree to a new default by the Argentine State. To the flexible pressure of the Fund, we must add the lack of dollars in the reserves, the high inflationary level, the real drop in income (salary, retirement and social assistance) and the drop in economic activity to take note of the complications faced by the Massa minister and the Massa candidate. Perhaps Monday the 14th of August will be more challenging than Sunday the 13th.
For the worse, from the political point of view, two variables do not help him either. One, the terrible image of the management of Alberto Fernández. Two, his closeness to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. It is true that this is due to his tactical alliance with the vice president and the need to retain the K vote (which is tempted by Juan Grabois’s nomination without pressure), but he conspires with the idea of seducing sectors detached from Kirchnerism.
Milei, with nuances, has had to move out of her comfort zone. She no longer divulges proposals that affect the agenda and tries to leave behind the defensive tactic in the face of the insignificant results in the provinces and, especially, due to the repeated complaints of the sale of candidacies. She embraces her tirades once morest the caste (without mentioning her own, of course) and for the first time criticizes Bullrich, who she holds responsible for some real or imagined operations.
With so much at stake, each candidate should be more alert to avoid believing the fictions they invent. The blow can be hard. Very hard.
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#Politics #blind #date
