As Politico notes, Von der Leyen is Germany’s choice, and Estonia is represented by Kaya Kalas, who is being anointed to succeed Josep Borrell as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Von der Leyen has asked each member state to nominate two names – one man and one woman – excluding the commissioners, who will remain in place.
She, then, will decide who will be the persons to whom the portfolios will be assigned, taking into account the geographical balance: that of political factions and that of the sexes. The President of the Commission has also made it clear to the leaders that she wants experienced and capable commissioners, who would ideally have executive experience in their home countries.
Several governments chose to avoid a nasty infighting by sending their current face back to Berlaymont, the Commission’s headquarters. Besides, their experience and personal relationship with von der Leyen could help build a better portfolio.
Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia) and Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia), for example, known as two steady hands, will add another five years at the European Commission to their CV. The same probably applies to Dubravka Šuica (Croatia), although it has not yet been officially named by its government. The Dutch commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, joined the European Commission in October as a replacement for climate czar Frans Timmermans and is returning for another five years, even though his party is not in the Dutch government. It is not yet clear whether the French and Greek leaders will decide to send back their current commissioners, Thierry Breton and Margariti Schina, although, as Politico notes, in the case of our country, the names of Niki Kerameos and Apostolos Tzizikosta are also being mentioned.
So far, no one has publicly presented two candidates, as requested. But European leaders are well aware that von der Leyen is eyeing another gender-balanced Commission. In some cases, there will be behind-the-scenes haggling over names and portfolios before anything official comes out, to avoid public damage to a candidate who might be rejected.
In other cases, national politicians battle each other for the nomination. In Lithuania, the prime minister and the president are openly fighting over the candidate. In Poland the match is held behind closed doors. Other countries, such as Bulgaria and Belgium, are in the midst of forming new governments, making the decision on the name difficult.
It’s no secret that France envisions an economic super portfolio to help guide the bloc’s industrial agenda in the face of competition from the US and China — potentially overseeing areas where Brussels has hard power: trade and competition. But Italy is also fishing for this role. A crucial question is whether von der Leyen decides to keep far-right leader Giorgia Meloni sweet with a top job for an Italian from her camp or leave her with the most symbolic new Mediterranean portfolio.
Enlargement will be a top-level portfolio because negotiations to expand the EU to include Ukraine will be one of the Commission’s most politically sensitive tasks.
Von der Leyen will decide who will take which portfolio, taking into account geographical, political and gender balance. EU member state leaders are bargaining for a powerful post in exchange for their support for von der Leyen. And a challenge for the Commission president will be to find enough women, which means that countries that nominate a female candidate have an advantage over those that nominate a man.
Member state governments have until the end of August to send in the names of their candidates. Von der Leyen will start interviewing the (new) candidates from the middle of next month and then start putting together the puzzle of the new college of Commissioners.
The political guidelines presented by Von der Leyen in Strasbourg ahead of the European Parliament’s ratification vote will form the basis of letters sent to the new commissioners outlining what is expected of them.
When von der Leyen’s work is done, it will be up to the European Parliament to sift through the new commissioners at hearings in late September and October. The European Parliament can reject candidates and sometimes likes to make a show of force – as it did in 2019 by rejecting the first choices of the French, Romanian and Hungarian commissioners. In such a case the country in question should nominate a new candidate.
EU officials hope to have von der Leyen’s new Commission in place by November 1.
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