2023-06-24 05:23:29
Nicolas Nassif wrote in Al-Akhbar:
Since the last session to elect the president on June 14 and the results of the poll, it has become logical that the election has entered a long vacation, closer to a coma, if not preceded by a surprise or uncalculated shock. No one can estimate the age of the vacation: until the end of summer or until the end of the year?
The presidential vacancy is still at a short age, in its eighth month, if it is necessary to take into account that there is a precedent for it between 2014 and 2016 that lasted for two years and five months. Subsequently, waiting becomes normal, the holding or non-convening of sessions is marginal, and the continuity of vacancy is not a source of concern in a reality that the Lebanese and the authorities are accustomed to and accustomed to: their ability to tolerate deterioration in living and monetary conditions has improved, official administrations are idle most days of the week, two constitutional authorities, the House of Representatives and the government, are functioning At the very least, while what is most reassuring is that none of the parties is willing to take risks and risk exposing internal security to turmoil. In this way the past months have passed. There is no rush to convene the presidential election session in light of a balance of forces that made it impossible, and it still is, at least until now.
More than a month ago, a problem was resolved that it was thought would hasten the election of a president for the republic, which led to the belief that the election would take place this month. It is a controversy that began last March and extended to the next two months about the dilemma after the end of the term of the Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh, on July 31, and any options available to the government. President Najib Mikati, as for all those in Salameh’s orbit, or the one in their orbit, regarding how to secure his exit from office and bring a successor to him at the table of a caretaker government in the absence of a President of the Republic.
On May 12, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, presented the solution, which is absolutely binding. He said that he was against appointing a new governor for the Banque du Liban and against extending his term, and that “everyone should assume his responsibilities and not abandon them.” The same month, on the Liberation and Resistance Day on May 25, he reaffirmed the position that a caretaker government does not have the power to constitutionally appoint and dismiss, and “what is required is an agreement on the alternative.” His two positions were in contradiction to what Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated more than once that he was against the First Deputy assuming the powers of the ruler immediately after his position became vacant. In recent weeks, no one talks about Salameh or comes to mention him, and it is seen – with all his crimes and the protections that shade them – that he has become from the past as a prelude to his final exit.
Thus, the replacement of First Deputy Governor Wassim Mansouri seemed inevitable, according to the jurisprudence implicitly expressed by Nasrallah: in the same way that accompanied the referral of Major General Abbas Ibrahim to retirement on March 2 and the appointment of Brigadier General Elias Al-Bisari as Acting Director-General of Public Security the next day by postponing his retirement and returning him to Active service, measurement has become normal and expected. For more reassurance and a positive view of a natural transition from a principal to an agent, and from one sect to another temporarily, Al-Baisari was promoted on May 26 to a Major General after it became vacant in the staffing of the General Directorate of Public Security with the rank of Major General – which is the only one – and he won it.
In order to organize the institution, the Maronite officer replaced the Shiite officer, pending reaching the stage after the election of the President of the Republic. Thus, the Shiite first deputy ruler also replaces the Maronite ruler for the same reason. Since then, there have been no incentives to rush the election of the president, nor to worry about a vacancy that did not exist in the first place in the Bank of Lebanon.
What was true the first time prevailed or almost prevailed in the imminent second time. It is expected to be expected in the third time if the presidential vacancy extends beyond October.
The new test lies in the vacancy of the position of Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, who will be retired on January 10, 2024. Because there has been no Chief of Staff in the army since Major General Amin Aram was retired on December 24, 2022 – and he is the second man in the military establishment to succeed its commander – Nashat The current problem, in which, contrary to public security and the governance of the Banque du Liban, early and subsequent political calculations and prices overlap.
Pursuant to the National Defense Law, the Minister of Defense has the exclusive authority to suggest the name of the Chief of Staff, provided that it becomes his appointment in the Council of Ministers, who has the power to disagree with the proposed name and return it to the minister, but he has no authority to replace it with another, nor to suggest any name he does not agree with. Minister. In recent days, a way out was raised, which stipulates, contrary to the Defense Law, that the army commander – rather, it was said that he is the owner – propose the name of the chief of staff, which is expressed in Yarzeh circles as “then this is what comes after that, then that.” Aoun spoke last Wednesday about this position during his imitation of the new brigadiers, their ranks, that no one deputizes for the army commander except the chief of staff.
Evaluate the new problem and its solutions at the same time in the following data:
1- The Chief of Staff replaces the Army Commander when his position becomes vacant or when he is unable to carry out his job due to travel or health reasons. However, the continuation of the work of the institutions, in turn, provides a solution when the position of the second man in the army becomes vacant after the first man, by replacing the higher-ranking officer in the higher position. The candidate to fill the vacancy, when the time comes if a new chief of staff is not appointed, is the full-time Catholic member of the Military Council, Major General Pierre Saab. The army brigade is currently the highest rank after its commander, and the highest rank among the remaining members of the Military Council. The reality is that what is left of the Military Council, after Aoun and Saab, is only a third, who is the Sunni member and Secretary-General of the Supreme Defense Council, Major General Muhammad Mustafa.
2- Because the authority of the Minister of Defense to propose the Chief of Staff is restricted, it is difficult for the Council of Ministers or any other party to bypass it, including the Army Commander. The Council of Ministers’ decision to appoint a chief of staff outside the legal scope that determines the authority and restricts the minister makes him subject to appeal and annulment, not to mention the army commander exceeding the limit of the authority given to him.
3 – He assesses the root of the problem in the fact that Defense Minister Maurice Selim is affiliated with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil, who has challenged – since the presidency of the republic became vacant – in the legitimacy of the meetings of a resigned government that assumes the powers of the president and whose decisions are invalid, not to mention the boycott of his ministers, including Selim, the cabinet sessions. Without Bassil’s approval, it is difficult to obtain the minister’s approval to suggest the name of the chief of staff. However, it is desirable for the head of the Free Patriotic Movement that Pierre Saab reach the position of acting army commander.
4 – It is not possible to reach a settlement leading to the appointment of a Chief of Staff in accordance with the principles and provisions stipulated in the National Defense Law without linking it to a political bazaar between two concerned with the position: Walid Jumblatt, who has been regular since 1990, as he is the only reference for naming the Druze Chief of Staff, and Basil, who bears the signature of the Minister of Defense. in his pocket. Without them, it is difficult to reach a settlement that involves more political gains than a military position. However, bypassing one of them would cause a new problem within the military establishment, which it is now indispensable in light of the ongoing conflict between its minister and its commander. However, both Jumblatt and Bassil are interested in his man reaching the position of acting army commander in the next stage.
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