2023-10-08 13:50:26
Washington (United States), 04/10/2023.- Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to reporters after the House of Representatives voted to remove him from his leadership position in the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, USA, 03 October 2023. Republican lawmaker Matt Gaetz from Florida brought the motion to vacate; it is the first time in American history that lawmakers have removed a speaker of the house. EFE/EPA/JIM LO SCALZO
Photo: EFE – Barefoot JIM
A shadow is creating instability in American politics, whose last victory was to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House of Representatives. This situation has shown the fights within the Republican Party, fragmented between radicals and moderates, and has raised doubts about the capacity of Democratic governance. With a look from the United States Congress, the 2024 elections just got hotter.
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The Republican breaking point
Donald Trump is here to stay. His victory in 2016 left the entire world wondering how he had come to power. Although his re-election plans ended with Joe Biden’s presidency, not without a takeover of Congress, a second presidential term seems closer than ever. Against all odds or legal proceedings, polls show that Trump has at least 50% of the voting intention in the Republican Party.
“Trump is a political shark. Even in the most adverse conditions he manages to find a way to turn them around, in such a way that it benefits him. Trump relies heavily on the support of some people who are faithfully aligned with him. They do not represent more than half of the population, but they are a significant number that are very motivated to vote,” says David Castrillón, professor at the Externado University.
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Trumpism was the beginning of a division that is becoming increasingly sharper. The Republican Party is being pushed to the far right by figures with strong electoral support. McCarthy, his latest victim, accused them of wanting to “burn the whole place down.”
“These more radical representatives are in their position because of that radical stance, which benefits them when raising money. People who identify with that position will be financing his term and from now on his re-election. This motivates them to be even more radical,” says Castrillón.
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Although the victory in the Chamber marked the control that the extreme right has over the party, this presents a problem for the cohesion of the political organization. Without negotiations inside, the image of the Republicans outside might not be the best with the legislative elections approaching.
“This seems to me to be undoubtedly a show of strength by Trump within the Republican Party. To the outside he sends the message to the people that he is a party that is in crisis, divided, that has a hard time reaching an agreement. Very strong internal struggles that are already public,” says Sandra Borda, professor at the University of the Andes.
Democrats, with a tarnished image
With Biden in the White House, the ambition of the Democratic Party was stronger than ever. The obstacle was Congress. For Borda, with the McCarthy situation, it seems that the Democrats could have an advantage. But things remain complicated.
Unlike his 2020 opponent, Biden does not generate the same level of enthusiasm among his party’s voters. His ability to govern has been clouded by his age and how difficult it is to reach agreements with Congress. Castrillón explains that, for the voters, what is happening in the House occurs under Biden’s control and generates confusion among the Democrats themselves.
“In fact, in surveys about who is to blame for what is happening, more people blame Biden and the Democrats than they blame the Republicans and than they blame both parties,” explains Castrillón.
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Without divisions as extreme as those in the Republican Party, Democrats also fear they will not be able to maintain control in Congress and the White House. Even with achievements such as the American Rescue Plan in response to Covid-19 and the Inflation Reduction Act, the American public does not believe that Democrats have improved the situation.
“The problem is that they oversold and underdelivered, even though by any normal measure their performance would have been impressive,” says NPR political correspondent Mara Liasson.
The possibility of an independent candidate would impact Biden’s path to re-election, according to the NewsHour, PBS and Marist poll. 17% of the votes would go to a third candidate, who may be independent, for the Green Party or for the Libertarian Party. The most prominent figure to leave is Cornel West, an activist and professor who announced his candidacy on Thursday, promising to “break the dominance of the duopoly and give power to the people.”
“Things look difficult, but not impossible. Finally, Biden won the election three years ago. Republicans may also make many missteps along the way, but things look difficult now for Democrats,” Castrillón concludes.
As in past years, the US elections in 2024 may leave many surprises. But the radicalization of American politics is still ongoing, and both Democrats and Republicans are beginning to make their bets very clear.
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