The PS leads the dance in Wallonia, the Vlaams Belang dethrones the N-VA in Flanders and Ecolo loses feathers in Brussels. Here is what emerges from the survey “The choice of Belgians” conducted by the Kantar Institute at the request of our colleagues from La Libre and RTBF. The major survey, conducted among Belgians aged 18 or over who have the right to vote in the 2024 national elections, does not claim to predict the outcome of the upcoming election but gives a first glimpse of the major trends that might emerge from the ballot boxes in a little over a year. Find below the main lessons of this survey.
Voting intentions: here are the Belgians’ favorite political figures!
Wallonia: the PS in the lead, the PTB records the greatest progress
With 25.8% of voting intentions, the Socialist Party is the leading party in Wallonia, according to the survey. If it remains in the lead, the party of Paul Magnette records a very slight decline compared to its 26.1% of votes collected during the federal elections in 2019. It is followed by the PTB which, with 20.1% of the intentions vote, has the greatest margin of progress compared to the last federal election (+6.3). In third position, the MR is on the heels of the PTB with 19.7% (-0.8) of voting intentions. Behind the Liberals, we find Ecolo with 11.3% of voting intentions (-3.6, the largest drop observed in the survey), Les Engagés with 9.3% (-1.4) and DéFi with 5 .4% (+1.3).
Flanders: the Vlaams Belang becomes the first party in Flanders, the N-VA regresses
The Vlaams Belang, which recorded an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to the federal election of 2019, becomes the first party in Flanders, according to this poll. With 24.8% of the voting intentions, the formation of Tom Van Grieken relegates the N-VA to second place. The Flemish nationalists, who total 21.5% of the voting intentions, therefore fall by 4 points compared to the results of the 2019 elections. Entering the top 3, Vooruit collects 15.2% of the voting intentions and records a margin of progress of 4.4 points compared to 2019. Followed by the Open Vld with 12.1% of voting intentions (-1.4 compared to 2019), Groen with 10.3% (+0.5) , CD&V with 9.6% (-4.6) and PVDA with 5.7% (+0.1).
Brussels: PS, MR, Ecolo and PTB in a pocket handkerchief
In Brussels, the PS steals first place in the ranking from French-speaking environmentalists. The formation of Paul Magnette wins 18% of voting intentions (-1.98 compared to 2019). Coming in second place, the Liberals collect 16.8% of voting intentions (-0.7 compared to 2019). They are neck and neck with Ecolo (16% of voting intentions, -5.57 compared to 2019) and the PTB (15.2% of voting intentions). Next is DéFi with 9.6% (-0.7), N-VA with 4.5% (+1.3), Les Engagés with 2.9% (-2.9), Vlaams Belang with 2, 6% (+1), Open Vld with 1.2% (-1.1%) and CD&V with 1.0% (-0.3).
Technical sheet
The people surveyed are inhabitants of Flanders (514), Brussels (493) and Wallonia (502) aged 18 or over, with the right to vote in the national elections of 2024 and having answered an online questionnaire, without the intervention of an investigator. Recruitment took place via OAP Panel Kantar (pre-recruitment, representative sample of the target group) from January 16 to 29, 2023. The data was weighted to perfect the representativeness of the sample on the basis of the following characteristics: gender, age (NIS reference data), education, occupation, province (CIM PMP 2020 reference data) and election results May 26, 2019 – House. Maximum margin of error of 4.4%.
