Just thirty years following its independence from the USSR, Kazakhstan was considered the most stable country of the former Soviet republics. No coup d’etat or inter-ethnic war, let alone the threat of separatism or border conflicts, such as those which are tearing apart its neighbors. In short, an oil autocracy on good terms with everyone. His former Russian overlord continued to use the Baikonur Cosmodrome; the rising Chinese power bought gas there and mapped out its “new silk roads”; the big American and European oil groups were investing tens of billions of dollars and buying uranium. 81-year-old “national leader” Nursultan Nazarbayev knew how to spare the goat and the cabbage on the outside, while concentrating the reins of power – and of course the flow of petrodollars in his hands.
But beneath these quiet appearances, the situation was actually more fragile. When a clumsy government decision doubled the price of LPG, the country’s most widely used fuel, on January 1, the political system nearly capsized within three days. While a social movement like the “yellow vests” was born on January 4, a fleet of Russian wide-body aircraft deployed, two days later, 3000 soldiers at the hotspots of a country five times the size of France, following a bath. unprecedented bloodshed – 164 unofficial deaths, including law enforcement).
The “dolphin” took advantage of the crisis to dismiss his mentor
Power had visibly underestimated the wave of discontent. But the footage also revealed that a “bulldog fight was taking place under a carpet”, to use Winston Churchill’s expression, describing the intrigues in the Kremlin. And the social revolt brutally pulled the rug. Clearly, it appears that in addition to the protests, there was a settling of scores between rival clans within the political elite, which seems to have contributed to the violence. In 2019, Nursultan Nazarbayev left the presidency to hand it over to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, an ultra-loyal apparatchik, now 68 years old. In reality, the former retained control of Parliament, the security services and the quasi-single party Nur Otan. The second was responsible for obediently managing a smooth transition from a regime that tolerates no opposition or dialogue with civil society.
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Only here, the “dolphin” took advantage of the crisis to get rid of his mentor. Hearing the crowd chanting “the old man out” in reference to Nazarbaïev, Tokayev immediately dismisses him, places his men in key positions and cancels the unpopular gas reform. In the hours that followed, the peaceful demonstrations gave way to scenes of looting and extreme violence, as the police vanished. Tokayev accuses “coordinated groups of terrorists” and orders them to be shot down without warning. He has imprisoned for “high treason” Karim Massimov, a liege of Nazarbaïev and former head of the security services.
The Tokayev-Nazarbayev tandem was already weakened by tensions, notes Temur Umarov, a specialist in Central Asia at the Carnegie Center in Moscow. “The protests shattered the status quo. Within days, President Tokayev shattered the foundations of dual power and wiped out all of Nazarbayev’s men.” Knowing that the latter may also have tried to get rid of his rival. “We have been witnessing political machinations in Kazakhstan for decades. This time it seems possible that some of the violent groups are close to the circles of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and that they acted on behalf of the National Security Committee [KNB, ex-KGB]”, analysis from Almaty Evguéni Jovtis, director of the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights, in an interview with Opendemocracy.net.
“Once the Russians are in your house …”
To establish his power, Tokayev released an unexpected joker: Vladimir Poutine. The Kazakh president appealed to the military organization OTSC, under the direct command of the Kremlin. Essentially composed of Russian soldiers, the mobilized contingent is sprinkled with Belarusians, Armenians, Tajiks and Kyrgyz to give the intervention a less imperialist aspect. He positioned himself in front of the main airports of the country, the buildings of the general staff, anti-aircraft defense, state television, the central bank, the secret services and in front of the presidential palace, as well as in the port of Aktau, on the Caspian Sea.
The secretary general of the CSTO, Stanislas Zas, a Belarusian soldier, assures us that all foreign soldiers “will leave Kazakhstan once the operation is completed (…)” and expects “a few days or weeks”. Nevertheless, the return of Russian soldiers for the first time in Kazakhstan since independence, and in a context of heightened tensions with the West, worries, in particular in Washington. “Recent history teaches us that once the Russians are in your house, it is sometimes very difficult to get them out,” tackled US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. A reference to “Russian peacekeeping forces”, installed for thirty years in Moldova and fourteen years in Georgia, once morest the will of these two countries.
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The Kremlin wants to give itself, in the former Soviet republic, the role of gendarme once morest the changes of regime coming from the street – which anguish it so much. But this presence risks both further tarnishing the image of Russia in a country where identity was built on the rejection of Russian domination. And that of President Tokayev, who maintains himself at the expense of the country’s sovereignty. The old elite sidelined will no doubt seek to stir up resentment, which jeopardizes a rapid return to stability.
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