Opinion polls show the second-term Law and Justice (PiS) party on track but could lose its majority amid growing discontent over the state of democracy, which has seen Poland lose billions of euros in European Union aid, and concerns about women’s rights and livelihoods prices.
As war rages in neighboring Ukraine and a migrant crisis looms, the EU and Washington are closely watching the vote, although both PiS and the main opposition support the important role of NATO member Poland in providing military and logistical support to Kyiv.
PiS sees the election as a choice between security from unrestricted migration, which it says its opponents support, and creeping Westernization, which it sees as at odds with Poland’s Catholic character.
“These elections will show whether Poland will be ruled by the Poles, by Berlin or by Brussels,” party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters at the party’s final campaign rally on Friday.
“Good, patriotic governance will be happy … not the screaming and hatred that fills the media and affects weaker minds,” he said in the town in southeastern Poland.
Representatives of “Law and Justice” have been speaking publicly for many months that the goal of their election campaign is an independent majority. However, today it seems that 2015 and 2019 history will not repeat itself. If this were to happen, it would be considered a big surprise.
Since coming to power in 2015 the party was accused of undermining democratic checks and balances, politicizing the judiciary, using state-run media to spread its propaganda, and inciting homophobia.
“For us, at least for me, it would be very sad if the current party was still in power, which would probably lead to Poland leaving the European Union,” Hanna Oktaba, a Polish citizen who emigrated to Mexico in the 1980s, told Reuters.
“We don’t want that for the younger generation… if they want to go back to Poland.” It would be a very bad choice for them,” said the woman.
Seven scenarios
The journalists of the publication “Rzeszpospolita”, based on the country’s Constitution, considered seven scenarios that can await Poland after the elections.
IMAGO/Scanpix/Polish ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski
PiS retains power – an independent majority
This scenario is considered the most favorable by PiS party politicians, but it is also unlikely at the moment.
If PiS were to govern independently – only with Sovereign Poland and other coalition partners – something should happen on Sunday that would be very different from the results of internal and publicly announced polls, Rzeszpospolita noted.
Representatives of “Law and Justice” have been speaking publicly for many months that the goal of their election campaign is an independent majority. However, today it seems that 2015 and 2019 history will not repeat itself. If this were to happen, it would be considered a big surprise.
AFP/Scanpix/Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
“It may be that the formation of one or another coalition will be determined by just a few thousand, or even a few hundred votes,” – previously 15min explained Vytautas Magnus University professor, political scientist Andrzej Pukszto.
PiS retains power – without a formal coalition. A minority government?
Recently, the most discussed scenario is that PiS wins the first place in the electoral ranking, but does not have an independent majority. This would undoubtedly give a start to a serious political struggle in the Polish Parliament.
The interviewed PiS representatives believe that it will be difficult to include 15 deputies in the new Seimas already. Which means that PiS must win at least 215-220 seats.
However, this does not necessarily mean that PiS will claim a formal coalition, the commentators of the publication pointed out. In their opinion, in such a case, the main question would be how many seats PiS lacks before a majority and who else would be in the Seimas.
“PiS politicians may try to attract a group of MPs to get a majority before the vote of confidence in the new government.” In this context, members of the “Confederation” are usually mentioned, sometimes also members of the People’s Party (if this party enters the Seimas). It is clear that the more parliamentarians need to be attracted, the more difficult it is to do so,” Rzeszpospolita writes.
The interviewed PiS representatives believe that it will be difficult to include 15 deputies in the new Seimas already. Which means that PiS must win at least 215-220 seats.
PiS retains power – a coalition
In the third scenario, it is assumed that PiS will retain power and form a government, but it will be a coalition government. Again, the “Confederation” is mostly mentioned here as a potential coalition partner. But within its ranks, as our conversations and official statements show, there is no enthusiasm for such a plan.
The possibilities of “PiS” to form a governing coalition with someone, in case of victory, decreased when “Konfederacija”, which at first glance seems closer to J. Kaczynski’s party, declared that it does not plan to enter into a coalition with it – just like with D. Tusk.
Reuters/Scanpix/Confederation party chairman Kšyštofs Bosaks
Analysts do not expect a coalition with the “Confederation”, but if it were formed, it would not last long due to ideological differences.
“One is that PiS is doing everything to take away voters from the “Confederation”, and second is that if we look at the program, at least for now, there are very big differences. Although the “Confederation” is not a party, but a coalition of other parties, most of them have liberal views in terms of the economy, socially, and have an absolutely different view of Polish society than PiS, which declares, on the one hand, that it is a right-wing party, but in practice realizes the social policy of the left.
It is here that it is very difficult for the “Confederation” to come to terms with it, a coalition is certainly possible, but for now there are no great possibilities due to the fact that PiS should yield to the “Confederation” somewhere in social policy, – the portal 15min commented columnist, publicist Jacek Komaras
The opposition takes power, the Civic Platform wins the elections
Such a scenario would be the most favorable for D. Tusk and his party. In this scenario, a second round of elections should take place and the Civic Platform would overtake PiS. Then – at least this is predicted – President Andrzej Duda will have to entrust the mission of forming a new government to the candidate indicated by the Civic Platform, which is likely to be D. Tusk.
AP/Scanpix/Party Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk
The scenario is based on the assumption that this party, together with its coalition partners, would have the majority needed to form a government. And that the opposition will agree on this. However, D. Tusk already hinted during the election campaign that such an agreement between the leaders has basically already been concluded. It is also an event in which a new opposition government is formed and takes office relatively quickly.
In the second constitutional step, the opposition takes power
The fifth scenario is currently the most discussed in the Civic Coalition, noted “Rzeszpospolita”.
It assumes that although PiS wins the election, party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki fail to form the majority in the Seimas necessary to form a government. Then the initiative will be transferred to the parliament in the second constitutional stage.
J. Komaras: The opposition is moving forward strongly and it is possible that the opposition – the Civic Coalition, the coalition of the left and the coalition of “Poland 2050” and the People’s Party – will also get about 50% if they manage to unite. They are already declaring today that they will try to form a joint coalition to rule Poland and oust the current government.
The opposition anticipates that a new government will be appointed at this stage – of course, if it has a majority. This political scenario could also work on the assumption that the three opposition blocs – the Civic Platform, the Left and the Third Way – would have a majority in parliament and no other political arrangements would be needed.
“The opposition is moving forward strongly, and it is possible that the opposition – the Civic Coalition, the coalition of the left and the coalition of “Poland 2050″ and the People’s Party – will also get about 50% if they manage to unite. They are already declaring today that they will try to form a joint coalition to rule Poland and oust the current government. But it is already clear that they can get more than 40%. It is possible that the seats that the smaller parties will not get will be divided in such a way that the opposition will also get more or less or slightly more than 50%. No party, no coalition will have the opportunity to independently create a government, it will be necessary to look for partners or persuade members of the Seimas”, noted J. Komaras.
The opposition rules together with the “Confederation” or part of it
Over all possibilities to form a government hangs the scenario, according to which the formation of a new cabinet will require cooperation with the “Confederation” or a part of it.
As already mentioned, cooperation with PiS, formal or informal, is very problematic for part of the “Confederation”. Less clear is the prospect of negotiations with the opposition.
The “Confederation” or part of it would certainly make its demands. And its cooperation with D. Tusk and other politicians of the parliamentary opposition is also problematic, given that it is an anti-system entity. However, some assume that if the “Confederation” wants to weaken PiS in the long run, it may try to contribute to the removal of Mr. Kaczynski’s party from power, even at the cost of more or less formal cooperation with the current parliamentary opposition. However, the left does not want such cooperation – and quite unequivocally.
Deadlock and possibly another election
Maybe Polish politics has reached an impasse from which it is impossible to get out without new elections, the commentators of the publication speculated. It is likely that this may become clear already in the first political step after the elections, which will not be the appointment of a new government immediately, but the election of the Speaker of the Seimas.
AP/Scanpix/Polish opposition march
According to the Rules of Procedure, “The Seimas elects the Speaker of the Seimas by an absolute majority of votes, with the participation of at least half of the number of Seimas members established by law.” If such elections require, for example, the “Confederation”, the situation immediately becomes a dead end, “Rzeszpospolita” assessed.
In the extreme case, Poland would be left not only without a new government, but also without the leader of the Seimas. Analysts did not rule out the possibility that a long-term solution may not be found in the elections and it will be necessary to hold additional elections, for example, in the spring, then in completely different political circumstances.
“That scenario is considered quite seriously by the political parties, because it can be said that the parties use funds for political campaigns very sparingly, as there are many indications that the October elections may be followed by elections in February or March,” asserted VDU professor A. Pukszto.
It should be noted that in order to get out of the possible deadlock, the mediation of President A. Duda will be needed, whose role will increase after the elections, especially in such more politically complex scenarios.
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#Poland #elections #scenarios #drawn
The article discusses the political landscape in Poland following the recent elections, with a focus on the “Confederation” party led by Kšyštofas Bosakas, its potential role in coalition building, and the implications for the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS). Analysts emphasize ideological differences that might hinder potential coalitions, particularly between the socially conservative PiS and the economically liberal factions within the Confederation.
The article outlines several scenarios regarding government formation:
1. **Civic Platform Victory**: The Civic Platform, led by Donald Tusk, is anticipated to have a favorable outcome if they can secure enough support to lead a new government. This would require an agreement with coalition partners and the opposition.
2. **Opposition Majority**: A scenario is posited where despite a PiS electoral win, they could fail to secure a parliamentary majority. In this case, the opposition would have the opportunity to form a government.
3. **Cooperation with Confederation**: There exists a possibility that a new government could either cooperate with the Confederation or include some of its factions. However, the ideological distance and mutual suspicions between the Confederation and the opposition complicate such arrangements.
4. **Political Impasse**: The article suggests the potential for a deadlock leading to another election if no coalition can be effectively formed.
The overall sentiment is that while there are multiple routes for forming a government, each is fraught with challenges, predominantly due to conflicting ideologies and the political environment in Poland. The dynamics between the traditional parties and the newer formations like the Confederation will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Polish governance.
