2023-09-06 19:47:51
Through the implementation of the PLF 2024, economic growth should stand at 3.7% in 2024, on the basis of the latest economic elements at the national level and the elements of uncertainty which weigh on the evolution of the international situation, indicates The report.
These assumptions set, in particular, cereal production at 75 million quintals, the price of butane gas at 500 dollars per ton, the euro-dollar parity at 1.081, and the increase in foreign demand addressed to Morocco (excluding phosphate products and derivatives) at 2.9%, continues the same source.
Taking into account the assumption of an agricultural campaign of 75 million quintals, the agricultural value added should increase slightly and register a growth of 5.9%. Non-agricultural value added should maintain its pace at a rate close to that of the previous year, since it should stand at 3.4% in 2024 following 3.3% in 2023.
As for the growth of foreign demand addressed to Morocco, it should continue to grow at the same moderate pace of the year 2023, and should increase by 2.9% in 2024 following 2.7% in 2023 and 5, 6% in 2022.
This should lead to a slight acceleration in export growth of 6.4% following 5.6% in 2023. Import growth should stand at 5.9% following 5.3% in 2023.
The secondary and tertiary sectors should consolidate their growth rates and continue to improve to reach 2.6% and 3.8% respectively in 2024.
On the demand side, growth should be driven by a contribution from exports which should amount to 2.9 percentage points, but which will be completely absorbed by the growth of imports, the contribution of which should stand at -3.5 percentage points. Ultimately, this leads to a slightly negative contribution from foreign trade to GDP growth of around -0.5 percentage point.
As for final consumption demand, it should contribute 3 percentage points, driven almost equally by the contribution of growth in household consumption at 1.4 percentage points to growth and that of general government consumption, the contribution of which would be 1.7 percentage points. Gross fixed capital formation should contribute 1.1 percentage points.
And to note that from 2025, the forecasts count on a correction of the growth around its level of these last years.
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