2022-11-01 23:00:00
As part of the review of the finance bill for 2023, Jean-François Husson, general rapporteur, presented to the Finance Committee, chaired by Claude Raynal, his main analyzes concerning the Government’s economic and budgetary policy.
As he had already pointed out during the examination of the public finance programming bill for 2023 to 2027, the general rapporteur notes that the GDP growth forecast used by the Government for the year 2023 is too optimistic : “a growth assumption of 1 % in 2023 is currently very far from the consensus of economists and above all does not take into account recent economic developments : slowdown in activity in the third quarter of 2022, increase in key ECB rates and forecast of recession in Germany and stagnation of activity in the euro zone.”
While the public debt reached 111.5% of GDP, the rise in interest rates constitutes a risk for the sustainability of French debtespecially since inflation also contributed to a rapid increase in nominal rates on the sovereign bond market.
Inflation – which remains mainly imported and linked to the increase in energy costs – is better controlled in France than in other developed economies, but it is at the cost of a strong mobilization of public finances which degrades public accounts.
While it is essential to continue supporting households and businesses and to provide the means necessary for the proper functioning of public services in the face of the energy crisis, a At the same time, an effort must be made to control the ordinary expenditure of public administrations, which will increase by 137 billion euros between 2021 and 2023, including 65 billion euros for this new year .
Thus, with regard to the State budget, while savings measures should be initiated from 2023, revenue decreasing slightly due to the effect of tax transfers to local authorities, the Government actually chooses not to adapt expenditure to the means at its disposal : it identifies the expenses that must increase, not the savings that should compensate for them.
The trajectory of expenditure does not therefore announce any inflection for the years to come: expenditure for the following years is already constrained by the high level of expenditure already incurred and by the lack of desire to control payroll expenditure.
The state deficithigher in 2023 than 150 billion euros for the fourth consecutive year, stay on the peaks reached during the health crisis, and the Government does not seem to find, or even seek, the means to come down from it.
This state budget is that of all records : never had a budget bill been presented with such a level of deficit from the start of the budget discussion, never had a budget provided for such a level of new borrowing, up to 270 billion euros in 2023, France has never had to repay so many maturing loans either, i.e. 156.5 billion euros.
At the same time, climate debt adds to fiscal debt and climate-unfriendly spending doubles. This figure would be even higher if the expenses of the price shield were taken into account without offsetting them with the revenues collected from renewable energy suppliers under public energy service contracts.
View the draft version of tome I (PDF – 2.19 Mo) of the general report
and the presentation (PDF-2.06 Mo) in committee
| The Finance Committee is chaired by Claude RAYNAL (Socialist, Ecologist and Republican – Haute-Garonne). Its general rapporteur is Jean-François HUSSON (The Republicans – Meurthe‑et‑Moselle). |
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