Pi Securities (Pi) evaluates the SET index frame of the 2020 SET Index at 1,650-1,675 points. Strategic investments focus only on trading because the stock market has already recognized many positive factors and the valuation is not correct, focusing on stocks that are still rising less, including the banking group ( BBL KBANK SCB TTB) Retail Group (BJC HMPRO) Communication Group (ADVANC INTUCH) Power Plant Group (BGRIM GPSC RATCH)
As for the January Effect phenomenon, although statistics say that in the past 30 years, stock market returns in January will be positive for 18 years, but for the next 12 years, negative returns. Or representing a probability of 60%, it is considered quite high.
However, if you look down, you will find that if in any year in December, it has already been adjusted. The chances that January will continue to increase start to be less, with the years in which Dec increases and Jan increases, i.e. during Dec 92 Jan 93, Dec 95 Jan 96, Dec 01 Jan 02, Dec 04 Jan 05. , Dec 11 Jan 12 , Dec 12 Jan 13 , Dec 16 Jan 17 , Dec 17 Jan 18 , Dec 20 Jan 21 , during which time the stock market is often in the lower zone and when the valuation is not expensive.
But in 2022 in December, the SET increased by 2% and the current Valuation is not very cheap, so expect the January Effect not much in 2023.
Pi Securities stated that the situation in foreign markets, the Dow Jones stock market, fell 0.22% on Friday night. The overall picture was just normal selling pressure. Brent crude prices rose 2.9%, supported by reports of a decline in U.S. oil rigs. This week, it is believed that the investment atmosphere will begin to return to near normal conditions.
As for domestic factors, namely Thai inflation for the month of December. 65 to be announced on Thursday, which Bloomberg expects at 5.9%YoY, if lower than the market’s estimate, will be positive for the stock market and the direction of the baht to continue to appreciate.
While overseas, the focus will be on Wednesday with the ISM Bloomberg US Purchasing Managers’ Index expected at 48.6. If it came out as expected, it would be a decrease from the previous month and a consecutive decrease for a period of time. 1 year, reflecting the poor overall picture of the US economy. On the same day, US job openings are reported, Bloomberg expects 10.1 million jobs, Friday on US labor, Bloomberg expects US nonfarm payrolls at 200,000 and the unemployment rate at 3.7%.
This morning, the Nikkei stock market remained closed for the New Year holiday.
By InfoQuest News Agency (03 Jan. ’23)
Tags: ADVANCE, BBL, GPSC, KBANK, SCB, SET, communication group, bank group, power plant, stock market, Pi Securities
