Supporters of Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party mostly come from the opposition camp, but its voters also come from Fidesz – it turns out Compass Institute from his recent research. According to Iránytű, Fidesz-KDNP has 27 percent of the total (adult) population, which corresponds to nearly 2.2 million domestic voters. This is regarding 600,000 less than the number of voters obtained in the 2022 elections. According to the research institute, now
With 13 percent popularity (1-1.05 million voters), Péter Magyar is the strongest opposition party.
The DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd trio has the support of 5 percent of the entire population, while Mi Hazánk and Kutyapár are around 3 percent. 37 percent of undecided and definitely not voters, and 7 percent did not answer.
If we take those who were able to name a party they would definitely vote for, then Fidesz-KDNP stands at 50 percent, Tisza Party at 26, and DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd at 10 percent. MKKP (4 percent), Momentum (3 percent) and Mi Hazánk (3 percent) are below the entry threshold, but within the margin of error. Support for Gábor Vona’s Second Reform Era 2, the Jobbik-Conservatives and other parties can be measured at 1 percent each among sure voters who can choose a party, according to the Compass.
Source: Compass Institute
Among those who can choose a party (those who might name a party they might vote for), Fidesz-KDNP also has a high lead; according to Iránytű, they would get almost half of the votes (49 percent) in the EP elections. Magyarek’s Tisza Party can count on nearly a quarter of the votes (23 percent). The five percent threshold will now be reached by the DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd (8 percent), Mi Hazánk (5 percent) and the Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (5 percent).
The question of where and from whom the Tisza Party attracts voters often arises. According to Iránytű, half of the current Hungarian voters (53 percent) were voters of the opposition alliance, 13-14 percent of them voted for Fidesz, 3 and 4 percent respectively for Mi Hazánk and the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt. 14 percent of them had not voted before, and 7 percent did not remember who or whether they had voted. They found that approximately every twentieth person (approximately 140,000 people) who voted for Fidesz in 2022 would now be a Tisza Party voter.
Iránytű also conducted two surveys, one week apart, from which it can be seen: support for the ruling party has decreased somewhat among sure voters who can choose a party, but this is within the margin of error. On the other hand, the Tisza gained 6 percentage points in the course of a week among sure voters, from 20 to 26 percent.
For the other parties, the change is within the margin of error or stagnant, only Mi Hazánk fell from 6 to 3 percent. By the way, the Tisza Party stands out among young people with its 18 percent, but it is balanced in the other four age groups (11-13 percent). It is also interesting that, according to the survey of the Compass Institute, support for the Tisza rises significantly with the increase in education.
The research of the Compass Institute April 17–19. in the form of a so-called computer-assisted telephone interview (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview). The research was financed by the Compass Institute itself, and their sample size was 1,073 people. Regarding the methodology, it was written that the processed data reflect the opinion of the voting-age population based on the population distribution according to gender and age composition, the highest level of education, and the legal status of the settlements. The margin of error of the research for the 50 percent data for the entire population (with 95 percent probability) is at most +/- 3.1 percent, but it is more likely that the distance of the results from the census value is smaller than this. The margin of error also decreases for values below 50 percent and above 50 percent for the entire population, but the margin of error cannot be treated as the size of the actual possible error.
