On the debate, these current had been the primary to criticize the probabilities of the smaller events. Relating to the small events, Gábor Horn stated that because of the Péter Magyar phenomenon, the small events discovered themselves in a really troublesome state of affairs, and there’s a good probability that no small social gathering aside from Mi Hazánk will enter the European Parliament.
Relating to the LMP, Horn stated that he not considers the social gathering to be a small social gathering, however quite a micro-party, which nearly fully ignored the European Parliament election and centered on Budapest.
Based on Gábor Horn, the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutyapárt can report enormous losses because of Péter Magyar, as a result of the brand new politician provides an efficient different to MKKP voters, and relating to Momentum, he defined that the social gathering misplaced its voters largely on account of its personal fault, following which Péter Magyar additional aggravated their state of affairs .
István Kovács stated that almost all of opinion polls agree and predict roughly the identical outcomes. This is because of the truth that the assist of sure events or organizations is not as fashionable because it was.
It’s much less and fewer fashionable for individuals to say on the telephone throughout a analysis that they assist DK or Mi Hazánk
– highlighted István Kovács, who identified that because of this, a number of researchers might underestimate the 2 teams, whereas researchers might overestimate the Tisza social gathering led by Péter Magyar, as a result of it’s at present trending amongst left-wing and opposition voters to assist the social gathering led by Magyar.
Péter Magyar is at present in a downward spiral, he has no reserves
– highlighted the professional.
Mi Hazánk can get a mandate
Zoltán Ember, government director of the Compass Institute, additionally defined in relation to the small events that Mi Hazánk has the most effective probability of successful a mandate, which strongly distinguishes itself from the opposite opposition events.
The place of the MKKP is troublesome to find out, there’s roughly a 40 p.c probability that the social gathering will enter the European Parliament
– highlighted the analyst, following which stated that the social gathering achieved larger leads to the overall meeting within the capital and within the XII. might be reached within the district. Relating to the LMP’s possibilities, Ember stated that solely the Vitézy record and the capital meeting can make sure the social gathering’s survival in the meanwhile.
The political evaluation director of Századvég, Zoltán Kiszelly, defined that the overwhelming majority of polling institutes predict the identical results of the election. Relating to the looks of Péter Magyar, the analyst stated that within the case of the opposition, a block formation accelerated, because of which the DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd was completely pressured into one group.
Repositioning DK
The Gyurcsány challenge failed, Gábor Horn declared. Based on the analyst, the essence of Gyurcsány’s plan was for the Democratic Coalition to change into the chief of an anti-Orbán opposition bloc. Nevertheless, with the looks of Péter Magyar, this position was taken away from the DK and shifted to the left, social democratic path.
There’s a chance that MSZP and DK will create one thing once more
Horn added.
Based on István Kovács, Sunday’s outcomes won’t change the truth that Ferenc Gyurcsány will proceed to be an indispensable determine within the opposition, as a result of there isn’t a organizational background behind Péter Magyar, and following the election, in response to the analyst, Péter Magyar will lose his curiosity, as a result of the large , guarantees of a change of presidency won’t be fulfilled.
Péter Magyar’s voting base is so heterogeneous that he would lose votes even when he gave the TISZA social gathering an unbiased id
István Kovács declared.
Relating to the Democratic Coalition, Zoltán Ember defined that, even though there was an attraction across the social gathering following 2022, this aspiration for dominance was useless from the very first second.
Ferenc Gyurcsány is a long-distance runner, he has survived quite a bit, however he’s not the one one within the social gathering
– highlighted the professional, following which defined that if the DK achieves a nasty end in Sunday’s elections, it’s attainable that it’s going to completely lose a few of its voters.
Zoltán Kiszelly defined that historically left-wing voters are more and more voting for the best, as they obtain good provides within the area of social coverage on this aspect.
Within the case of the Democratic Coalition, we see that it has largely older voters, and it has nonetheless not been attainable to rejuvenate the voting base
– identified Kiszelly, following which added that the social gathering can experiment within the common meeting within the capital, what sort of cooperation it will possibly enter into sooner or later with the Tisza social gathering led by Péter Magyar.
For Péter Magyar, I see the overall meeting within the capital as the sphere the place he can experiment with what sort of relationship he can develop with the DK. That is good for everybody, as a result of Péter Magyar can later discuss with this, and Gyurcsány can declare that anybody who doesn’t cooperate with him is a Fidesz particular person, and thus can assault the Tisza social gathering
– Kiszelly added, to whose statements Zoltán Ember defined that the Democratic coalition by no means really made a suggestion to expert employees and conventional left-wing voters.
The Péter Magyar phenomenon is a consequence
Based on Gábor Horn, Péter Magyar is at present in a really grateful state of affairs, as a result of his social gathering will not be an impediment for him in the meanwhile.
The largest constructive regarding him is that little is thought regarding him
– highlighted the analyst, following which added that Péter Magyar has an excellent sense of tempo, as a result of he created an enormous alternative for himself with Saturday’s demonstration.
I feel the Péter Magyar phenomenon actually begins solely on June 9
Gábor Horn added.
István Kovács stated that within the case of Péter Magyar, there’s nonetheless an enormous downside that there isn’t a community behind him, and he doesn’t really know the candidates, which carries a critical danger.
Relating to the demonstration to be held on June 8, Kovács emphasised that Péter Magyar would do finest if he wouldn’t say something particular on the protest, as this may scare away a few of his voters.
I’d not be stunned if Magyar had been to take up his mandate, regardless of his earlier claims, as a result of it might actually imply a residing for him
– added the pinnacle of the Heart for Basic Rights, who added that he doesn’t count on miracles from Saturday’s demonstration, and expects the Tisza to recede following the election.
Zoltán Ember, the managing director of the Compass Institute, defined {that a} social gathering might be profitable if there’s a frequent socialization among the many candidates, which at present doesn’t exist among the many candidates of the Tisza Occasion.
There should still be a critical transition inside the opposition, there are a variety of uncertainties, so it’s of utmost significance to Péter Magyar how many individuals go to his demonstration on Saturday
– stated Ember, who believes that Péter Magyar has an opportunity to present the voters one final impulse on Saturday.
On the similar time, Zoltán Kiszelly defined that Péter Magyar was pressured right into a defensive place on the finish of the marketing campaign, as a result of the politician was labeled as pro-war when it got here to the conflict.
