Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, moving towards a game of chicken… Comprehensive calculus in the US and China

Biden fears criticism of ‘submission to China’ ahead of midterm elections
Xi Jinping, ahead of the ‘Coronation Ceremony’, is also concerned regarding damaging ‘Taiwan’s strong image’

Tensions between the US and China over whether House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan are escalating.

Taiwanese media reports that Pelosi will arrive in Taiwan on the night of the 2nd.

China, which regards Taiwan as its territory, has even hinted at the possibility of using force to deter Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

In response, the US also declared that it would take all measures to protect Chairman Pelosi, and the conflict between the two countries is turning into a ‘chicken game’ that neither side can make concessions to.

The unprecedented heightening of tensions between the two countries is due to the political explosiveness of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, in addition to existing rivalries in the Indo-Pacific region.

It is said that domestic public opinion in the US and China may fluctuate over Chairman Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and the profits and losses of the two governments will be sharply divided.

First of all, from the perspective of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is a variable that cannot be overlooked in the face of the fall party congress (the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party), which will confirm the third consecutive term.

With regard to Taiwanese unification, President Xi maintains a stance of ‘aiming for peaceful reunification, but not excluding unification by force’, and the more the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party regime has strengthened cooperation with the United States to escape from China’s self-defeat.

For this reason, the Taiwan Strait has become a gunpowder for the US-China strategic competition that can explode at any time, but China’s perception is that the visit of Chairman Pelosi, the third in the US rank of power, to Taiwan is an act of breaking the current precarious balance.

Also, many observers predict that if President Xi confirms his third term at the party congress in the fall, Taiwanese reunification will be at the top of the national agenda during his next tenure.

In the end, Xi made it his top priority to deter Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which would shake his ‘coronation’ mood, and if it does not, military force was intervened to put a wedge in progressing U.S.-Taiwan relations beyond Pelosi’s visit. Prospects are being raised that there will be an unprecedented level of armed protests.

The New York Times reported that Xi recently made it clearer than any of his predecessors that reunification of Taiwan was his main goal in his rule, and that he wants to show an image of being strong, especially in the Taiwan issue.

In addition, it is expected that if the Chinese leadership cannot prevent Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it will be actively used as a material to gather public opinion under the banner of anti-Americanism ahead of the party congress.

China’s leadership, which received a lower-than-expected economic report of a mere 0.4% growth in the second quarter amid the impact of high-intensity quarantine policy and the Ukraine war, convinced the public why President Xi’s extension of power was necessary until the party congress in areas other than the economy. need to do

In the end, it is expected that the Pelosi issue can be used as an opportunity to plant an image of a leader who will firmly protect the national core interests in the fierce competition between the US and China.

Conversely, from the perspective of President Joe Biden, if Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is canceled, he might take a bigger hit in the still unstable midterm elections in November.

It might expose the US to criticism that it has succumbed to China’s intimidation.

President Biden has often been embroiled in criticism for showing a weaker side to China than former President Donald Trump.

At first, President Biden appeared to be trying to avoid a situation of conflict with China, giving negative nuances to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

However, the White House recently announced that it would do everything possible to ensure that Pelosi might safely visit Taiwan without being threatened by China.

This change of atmosphere seems to reflect the movements of American politicians and public opinion.

However, the situation in which both the US and China show no room for compromise and concessions is expected to put a burden on President Biden and President Xi in the end.

It’s a scenario that neither the US nor China want in their minds, that flash tensions lead to real clashes.

In 1995, when then-Taiwan President Li Teng-hui visited the United States, China fired two missiles into the waters near Taiwan and the United States responded by sending two aircraft carriers.

However, when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan following visiting China in 1997, the Chinese Foreign Ministry only issued a critical statement.

Of course, there are many observations that the situation will be different this time from 1997.

However, it is pointed out that it will not be an easy decision for China to carry out a military provocation once morest the head of the US legislative branch.

/yunhap news