If Russia were able to ensure permanent Ukrainian neutrality and retain the illegally annexed Crimea, as well as some of the border areas it has annexed, then the Putin could end his so-called “Special Military Operation”. Proponents of a negotiated settlement argue that Ukraine is unlikely to recapture territory already annexed by Moscow and peace now is needed to stop total destruction. According to those who support the idea of negotiation, the following is true: If Kiev, as part of a deal, agrees to stay out of NATO, then it will reduce tensions and cultivate the ground for future coexistence.
Why is this whole scenario a bad and unacceptable idea? For at least four reasons:
First, neither Putin nor his arrogant foreign policy advisers have abandoned their goal of resurrecting the Tsarist/Soviet empire as it existed from the 1780s to the late 1980s. The source of today’s problems was not eastward expansion of NATO, but Moscow’s imperial ambitions. A pause in the Ukraine war would allow the Kremlin to rebuild Russia’s forces and, once NATO and Kiev loosen up, renew its push to seize the rest of Ukraine and then move on to Moldova, the Baltic states and elsewhere in the so-called “near abroad” of Moscow.
Second, the Kremlin’s promise of non-aggression means nothing. In 1945 the USSR signed the UN Charter, which prohibited war except in self-defense or for collective security. Earlier, the Litvinov Protocol in 1928 renounced war as a means of national policy (which was ignored in 1939, when Stalin joined Hitler in invading Eastern Europe, ie Poland, Baltics, etc.). More recently, Kiev agreed to transfer its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994 (unilateral nuclear disarmament) in exchange for assurances from Moscow, Washington and London to respect Ukraine’s independence and borders, assurances that have been repeatedly violated by Putin in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
Third, no peace treaty with Putin’s regime can ensure justice for war criminals. As long as Putin remains in power, he cannot and will not be punished, nor will he allow his criminal associates to face international justice. International Law does not provide “head of state immunity” for war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide. The Rome Statute, on the basis of which the International Criminal Court (ICC) was founded, clarifies that “official status as head of State or government, member of government or Parliament, elected representative or government official shall in no case exempt a person from criminal responsibility ».
Fourth, as long as the Putin regime survives, Russia will neither recognize nor pay reparations for the suffering it has caused in Ukraine or for the millions of dead, wounded, maimed, thousands of civilians displaced and forced to flee abroad. The immense damage to the economy through the destruction of buildings, infrastructure, livestock, lost years of GDP, damage to resources and all the foundations of development and prosperity would be left uncompensated, along with the destruction of the natural environment, not to mention the cultural destruction. of looted museums or destroyed theaters and concert halls. The bills for these damages are over $1 trillion (a huge burden, but manageable for Russia through oil and gas sales, the same way Iraq paid for its invasion of Kuwait).
To convince Russia to address its multidimensional responsibilities for these disasters, the Putin regime must first be replaced by honest Russians who will push for massive reforms in cooperation with an international administration.
RUSSIAN SOCIETY MUST ACT
As in Germany and Japan after 1945, Russian society must be pushed towards democracy. Genuine reconciliation with Ukraine and the West will require profound change in the Russian Federation, and it may take generations to change the prevailing negative and unrealistic mindset. Until such reforms and changes take root, Russia will likely maintain its sick imperialist ambitions. Persistence on democratic reforms in Russia is essential to avoid lasting global insecurity. People of good and honest will should not even consider negotiating some kind of compromise with Russia’s current tyrannical, authoritarian and post-Kangbeist regime.
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#Peace #Putin #delusion
