2023-10-22 03:30:00
We Argentines will vote today to elect the next president of the republic and part of the future Congress, in the midst of a deep economic crisis and in a context of great uncertainty regarding the future of the country, whoever wins. Unlike other electoral shifts, the main analysts and pollsters do not perceive a climate of positive expectations, but rather disorientation and pessimism following a rather negative campaign and few proposals for the future.
Perhaps the succession of staggered provincial elections, the primaries, this first round and a probable runoff have meant that for more than a year we have been in a permanent campaign climate and that generates a certain fatigue in the electorate. But without a doubt it has been the process of inflationary acceleration and the economic stagnation of several years that has produced the greatest wear and tear on the spirit of the majority of the population.
Surveys and focus group studies carried out by consulting firms to analyze the social climate reflect that today negative feelings are overwhelmingly predominant. Almost 75% of Argentines have problems sleeping, says the Faculty of Psychology of the UBA and Half confess that they “get up tired” in the morning according to the quality of life study by the Colsecor foundation. The surveys reveal anger, disenchantment with politics and uncertainty with the direction the country is taking as predominant. In an economic and social context that seems to be deteriorating rapidly, fear, stress and helplessness grow, the feeling that “everything is getting worse” and that we are living “day by day,” focus studies say.
These feelings will accompany those who go to the dark room today, although no one knows if they will benefit or harm a particular candidate, because disenchantment is widespread. As the political scientist pointed out Carlos Fara, in the absence of someone who is enthusiastic, it seems that this election “will end up being the one who seems least bad,” a trend not only in Argentina but in world politics.
One of the biggest uncertainties today is how many of the 35,894,334 eligible Argentines will go to vote. Participation in the August PASO Elections was 69%, the lowest since the return to democracy in 1983. It is expected that, as the general trend shows, this figure will increase by around 5-7%, who will probably be decisive in the election. They are the least politicized and difficult to measure, since they are very reluctant to respond to surveys.
And if the electoral campaign was an opportunity to enlighten these voters and excite them with some narrative of the future, it did not seem to have been well used by the majority of the candidates, because once once more the strategies were marked by vague promises, personal attacks and appeals to the more negative emotions. The final stretch of the campaign took place in the midst of a currency and price run, accelerated by irresponsible statements and controversial decisions in search of a last-minute coup.
It is logical that the long crisis clouds the population’s expectations for the future, more focused on overcoming daily problems than on planning for tomorrow. The paradox is that, once morest the prevailing pessimism, the immediate economic context offers favorable opportunities for Argentina, such as the energy surplus and extra income from exports following the end of the drought, that might favor a rapid recovery in 2024, if the macroeconomy stabilizes and expectations change. The future Congress, that is defined today, most likely it will not leave a clear majority and will force important consensus to take advantage of the opportunity.
Today Argentines will assert their civic right to define their future and surprises are expected. There is a definition in the first round or runoff, Democratic and responsible behavior of all candidates and forces is desirable, given the climate of uncertainty and political and economic tension. in which a good part of this electoral process has taken place, which might extend another month, with all that this implies.
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