The specter of Ukraine should float this Tuesday, January 25 during the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Berlin. If the two men want to discuss broader European issues, the approval of a common line on the Ukrainian file will undoubtedly be at the heart of the debates.
The shipment of weapons in question
Officially, the two countries share similar positions of principle, namely maximum support for Ukraine in the face of threats of Russian intervention and the search for dialogue with Moscow in order to obtain a de-escalation. To achieve this, the French and German leaders are putting forward, among other things, the relaunch of the “Normandy format”, a forum for dialogue bringing together Germans, French, Russians and Ukrainians. Initiated in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, this format is currently at a standstill.
→ ANALYSIS. German diplomacy torn between Kiev and Moscow
Behind these declarations of principle, however, the German position is weakened. In question, Berlin’s refusal to deliver arms to Ukraine. Acted by the new government of Olaf Scholz, this decision is justified by a rule prohibiting the export of arms to countries at war. However, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock drew the ire of Kiev when she alluded to Nazi Germany’s abuses in Ukraine, suggesting that too many dead had already fallen in this region under fire. German. For his part, Emmanuel Macron said he was ready to send French troops to Romania.
“Lack of support”
It is the incomprehension in Kiev which also castigates the German refusal to deliver its weapons, at least via a third country. Olaf Scholz has thus still not approved the request made by the Estonian government to send weapons bought in Germany to Ukraine. For Vitali Klitschko, mayor of the Ukrainian capital, this attitude is similar to “lack of support” and to “a betrayal of friends in a dramatic situation”, he wrote in the pages of the diary image.
The disappointment of the Ukrainians was further heightened when the head of the German navy, Kay-Achim Schönbach, told a conference in India that Crimea was « perdue » for Ukraine, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was looking for the « respect ». If, since then, this vice-admiral has resigned, his remarks have triggered a real diplomatic storm. Andrij Melnyk, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, believes that this case “massively challenged Germany’s international credibility and reliability”.
Request of clarification
For Gustav Gressel, specialist in relations between Germany and Russia at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), German policy evolves between « chaos » and « affirmation ». “The words of Annalena Baerbock, those of the Vice-Admiral and the communicative restraint of Chancellor Olaf Scholz blur the overall message”, he believes. “The government must communicate better and abandon its moralistic positions to refuse arms deliveries”, he judges.
At the same time, this expert notes that “some positions have been clarified”, particularly concerning the very sensitive issue of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline. This highly controversial pipeline connects Germany to Russia bypassing Ukraine. Last week, Olaf Scholz confirmed for the first time that “all folders” were on the table as possible sanctions once morest Russia in the event of an invasion. An important step for a Chancellor who has long described this gas pipeline as simple “private economic project”.