2024-08-12 07:52:10
The Paris Stock Exchange edged up 0.24% on Monday morning, with a cautious start to the week while awaiting the release of key indicators for insights into the state of the U.S. economy.
Around 9:25 a.m., the flagship CAC 40 index was up 17.44 points at 7,286.90.
Last week, the index edged up 0.25% after five consecutive sessions of sharp fluctuations due to concerns about a U.S. recession and the liquidation of speculative operations in the yen.
After a series of conflicting indicators of economic dynamics in the United States, investors are now awaiting CPI inflation data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday.
Briefing.com’s median forecast is for US monthly inflation to rise slightly to +0.2% in July, compared with -0.1% in June.
These inflation data “will play a key role in the Fed’s next monetary policy decision,” recalled Jochen Stanzl of CMC Markets.
Investors worry that the Federal Reserve’s measures to control inflation have pushed the U.S. economy into recession and now expect three key interest rate cuts by the end of the year, including the first reduction since September.
But on Saturday, Michelle Bowman, a voting member of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), estimated that U.S. inflation remains “too high” compared to the Fed’s 2% target despite progress in recent months.
Ms. Bowman added that on monetary policy, “I would be cautious about adjusting the current stance.”
Another indicator expected this week: U.S. retail sales data for July will be released on Thursday, which will provide a glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer.
A very low number could send markets reeling with fears that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession.
Ultimately, Stephen Innes, partner at SPI Asset Management, expects investors to remain cautious this week as a new phase of instability and volatility cannot be ruled out, “especially given the key data on US inflation and the overall characteristics of mid-August: liquidity is lower than usual.
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