2023-04-27 01:39:00
Paraguay will hold presidential elections to determine who will succeed Mario Abdo Benitezone of the leaders of the historical colorado party which is facing the possibility of losing power for the second time in 76 years. The elections will be marked by the uncertainty associated with the polarization between the two main candidates, the fierce internal government party and issues that divide Paraguayans, such as opening up to China or corruption.
Sunday April 30 4.8 million Paraguayans will be summoned to the polls to elect a president, national legislators, regional and municipal authorities. At the national level, the electorate will be able to opt for a wide range that exceeds ten candidates. However, the ones who stand out are the leader of the opposition Ephraim Alegre and the candidate of the divided ruling party, santiago penawho are shaping up to achieve a technical tie according to the latest polls.
A condiment no less of the elections are the ups and downs that the Colorado party has gone through in recent years. Especially since the division of its leadership was accentuated after the sanctions for corruption imposed by the United States on some of its leaders. Among them, the powerful ex-president Horace Cartes (2013-2018), Peña’s political godfather and one of the most influential figures within the party that has ruled Paraguay almost without pause since the late 1940s, will seek a new mandate on Sunday.
The Colorado party: from hegemony to fracture
The contemporary history of Paraguay is marked by an essentially two-party system that began in 1887, led by the Colorado and Liberal parties. The dispute between the two parties in the 20th century went beyond mere electoral participation but became part of the Paraguayan identity.
“They are traditional parties, they are not ideological nor do they respond to interests. The only difference is the rural or urban character. Being colorado or liberal has a deep root in the identity of the Paraguayan”highlighted Alberto Acosta Garbarino, Paraguayan analyst and director Development In Democracyin a virtual meeting organized by the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI) in which he participated PROFILE.
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Of the two, it was the Colorado party that took control of the Palacio de López almost uninterruptedly since 1947. Over the course of 76 years, the Colorados forged alliances with military and political sectors, including the dictator alfredo stroesner which took de facto power in 1954. During the dictatorship, an essential requirement to work in the State or enlist in the Armed Forces “You had to be affiliated with the party”detailed Acosta Garbarino.
“During Stroessner’s 35 years, the party was financed by public employees. It had 411 branches throughout the country, surpassing the parishes,” he stated. In addition, the analyst and graduate in Economics added that in a democracy the structure in the territory (the focus of power for the Colorados) should have been solved with “a scheme of corruption y patronage” built from political power.
In the 21st century, after the shock that caused the historic defeat against the opposition coalition led by Fernando Lugo (2008-2012), the party took refuge in Horace Cartes, a businessman who “financed the red machinery” and who became president of Paraguay in 2013 after the political crisis that led to the removal of Lugo by Congress. Since then, the powerful Colorado party has remained in power but could not set aside the internal fracture, today led by the current president, Mario Abdo Benitez and by Cartes himself, who remains relevant despite the US sanction for corruption.
an uncertain scenario
The internal one within the ruling party of Colorado and the division of the opposition are two ingredients that add to the uncertainty in the face of the April 30 elections. “Today we have a Colorado party with that structure disputing and on the other hand the Liberal, the main opposition but smaller that cannot compete without allying itself with other small politicians,” added Acosta Garbarino.
According to the latest survey by the consulting firm Atlas, there would be a tie between the candidate of the opposition Concertación, Efraín Alegre (34%) and the political godson of Horacio Cartes, Santiago Peña (34%). The latter maintains a slight advantage granted by “the hard vote” that characterizes the Colorado party, which is estimated to have an electoral floor of between 1.1 and 1.2 million votes.
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For his part, President Abdo Benítez, close to Washington and one of the protagonists of the intern Colorado along with Cartes, did not get involved in the campaign of the Colorado candidate who could be left empty-handed next Sunday. Before the consultation of PROFILE, the specialist indicated that although the circle of the Paraguayan head of state “did not get involved in Peña’s campaign”, they did not obstruct it either. “There is no fracture but there is no hug either,” he clarified.
From the opposition side, something that could favor Alegre is the higher voter turnout, in a country of 7 million inhabitants where on average 65% of the registered voters go to the polls (some 4.8 million for this 2023). Another encouraging fact is that the 60-year-old candidate who is running for the presidency for the third time grew in voting intentions and for this year it is estimated that he will have a floor close to one million one hundred thousand votes thanks to the “anti-Colorado vote.” However, one obstacle is that the opposition is also divided, something that favors the ruling party.
“Efraín Alegre leads the concertation, he wanted to form a broad one that would include all the parties but there are some that did not want to enter. In Paraguay there is no ballot, something that avoids uniting the opposition. The minority parties do not want to lose their identity in front of the party Liberal”, added Acosta Garbarino, who also highlighted the growing popularity of the outsider Payo Cubas, the “Paraguayan Milei” which is in third place with 23% voting intention.
“When things are even, those who have the structure and resources have a better chance of winning. The Colorado party has a better chance of winning. But there are those imponderables and there may be surprises. It will be an even election. The polls are not credible. Media polarized communication. There is a lot of uncertainty in the voter,” he closed.
CD / ED
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