Paraguay, between continuity and alternation

2023-04-23 00:15:00

On April 30 Paraguay will vote for a new president. Santiago Peña, from the conservative Colorado Party, and Efraín Alegre, at the head of a coalition with progressive support, will measure their forces in highly polarized elections

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Paraguay remained for decades quite aloof and quiet in the political environment of Latin America. Since when it was led by the leftist Fernando Lugo. On April 20, 2008, exactly 15 years ago, the ex-bishop made history by becoming the first opposition member elected president following six decades of rule by the Colorado Party.

Now the South American country is preparing for similar elections. The colorados, with Santiago Peña as a candidate for the presidency, seek to remain at the head of the Government for the third consecutive term and maintain their majority in Congress. A former minister from Lugo, Efraín Alegre, is the opposition candidate, he has the support of the former president and the polls are favorable to him.

Lugo himself also heads the list of candidates for the Senate in these elections for the left-wing alliance Frente Guasu, with which he won a seat in the Upper House in 2013. At 71 years old, the former president is recovering today from a stroke that keeps him away from the media, but he continues to be, in the opinion of different sectors, a political reference and leader of the opposition in the country.

The candidates

Santiago Peña and Efraín Alegre, the two main contenders for the presidency of Paraguay. / The National

On April 30, Paraguay will go to the polls to elect a new President of the Republic, members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, governors and members of government boards.

Santiago Peña of the National Republican Association (Colorado Party) and Efraín Alegre of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) are fighting for continuity or alternation.

Today, the Colorados hold the head of state, headed by Mario Abdo Benítez, as they have done for 76 years. Since 1947 they have led the country, both under civilian and military governments, and were also the political support of the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989).

The current president, Abdo Benítez is, in fact, the son of Stroessner’s private secretary and grew up under the dictatorship. Colorado power only diminished in 2008, when Lugo came to power, but this experience was abruptly interrupted in 2012, through an express parliamentary removal procedure that was riddled with irregularities.

Efraín Alegre is the opposition candidate. It is presented by the Coalition for a New Paraguay, which brings together most of the forces antagonistic to the traditional ones: the Febrerista Revolutionary Party (PRF) –of a progressive nature–, the National Encounter Party (PEN) –of a social democratic tendency– , the Patria Querida Party (PPQ) –right and conservative–, among others.

The candidacies express different political projects and, in recent times, show a process of polarization that is going through Paraguayan society. According to the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics, both candidates are under pressure to reduce a fiscal deficit of three percent of Gross Domestic Product over the past year, either by cutting spending or raising taxes on agriculture, the main engine of the economy of a landlocked country.

Colorados, Liberals, and the US

The conservatives risk hegemony; His power is in crisis since the United States Department of the Treasury decided to sanction former Colorado President Horacio Cartes (2013-2018) for “involving acts of corruption before, during and following his term.” Cartes is accused by Washington and even the current president, Abdo Benítez, of tobacco smuggling —with his main company, Tabacalera del Este SA (Tabesa)—, of money laundering and even of maintaining ties with groups considered terrorists by the White House , such as the Lebanese Hezbollah.

The electoral balance, leaning towards the ruling party, changed sharply following the news regarding Cartes, which included the ban on entering the US and doing business with its companies. The decision would be very good if it did not have the interventionist background to which Washington has accustomed us. Putting a criminal behind bars or at least limiting his movements is a fair move, but coming from the north…

This new trick in the final stage of the electoral race is preceded by a separate visit by the two candidates to United States Ambassador Marc Ostfield, later ostensibly published in the media. Both are strong allies of Washington and the decision might be interpreted as favorable to the PLRA. In reality, in the opinion of analysts, the northern embassy “reset” the game to place both Liberals and Colorados under its control, so that there is no way out on the sidelines of either of these two parties. Whoever wins will be in total harmony with the United States.

Although the accusations once morest Cartes weigh on Peña, on Alegre, lawyer and former Minister of Public Works of the Government of Lugo, falls the fact that he abandoned the former president in the face of manipulated allegations of corruption and voted once morest him in the impeachment trial that brought him down, in 2012.

Cheerful, once morest Taiwan and in favor of China

Paraguay is the only country in South America that maintains relations with Taiwan and has a diplomatic mission from the island on its territory. This might change if Alegre comes to power, because, as he recently assured, he will review this relationship. “We have a critical position on the relationship with Taiwan (…) Paraguay must relate to China,” he said in an interview and applauded the principle of a single China that Beijing demands.

During the current government of Colorado Mario Abdo Benítez, Taiwan has become the second largest buyer of Paraguayan meat following Chile. On the other hand, Paraguay is also among the 10 largest world exporters of beef and is the fourth largest exporter of soybeans, its main income product, and its producers and exporters aspire to more. To sell their products in the Asian giant they must use a third party and to import products made in China they use intermediaries such as Chile, Argentina and Brazil.

The South American nation has been an ally of Taiwan since 1957; however, the economic vigor of the Asian giant makes the decision rethink and Alegre uses it to attract this business sector interested in expanding into those distant markets. Given all the reality surrounding these elections, few pay attention to the local surveys of voting intentions. Some give more than 10 or 30 points to the Colorados. On the other hand, the Atlas survey, carried out in Brazil, predicts a technical tie, with Alegre almost two more points once morest Santiago Peña.

Change might prevail, but Paraguay is a country where the Colorados always have an advantage. If they don’t win by April 30, they’ll find a way to do it later…

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