The Covid pandemic has changed the world. Years after its outbreak, many countries are suffering from increased mortality. Will this phenomenon stay with us for a long time?
Four years after the outbreak of Covid-19, other events have pushed the pandemic off the front pages. However, for the insurance industry, it does not seem to be over yet. There, Covid-19 is considered to be a Synonym for excess mortality.
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In many countries around the world, population mortality continues to rise. This effect appears to be generally independent of health systems and the health status of the population.
It also becomes clear that the respective mechanisms and mortality classifications appear quite complex when comparing countries, given the changing population sizes and the extent of reporting.
Against this background, it is likely that a certain degree of excess mortality is underreported and thus under-reported statistically. Quantifying excess mortality represents an acute challenge for exceptional mortality rates as a result of the pandemic from 2020 onwards.
The term “excess mortality” refers to the number of deaths in excess of the assumed “expected” number of deaths. The different methods used to estimate expected mortality can lead to very different excess mortality rates.
This can pose a significant challenge for life and health insurance. Swiss Re expects that we will have several years of increased mortality ahead of us, depending on the demographic makeup of the total population. The main thing that matters to the insurance industry is the development of the insured population.
If current expectations are exceeded, this may have an impact on long-term benefits and thus on both the respective portfolios and the pricing of new life insurance policies.
In this study, the Swiss Re Institute forecasts excess mortality in the US and the UK for the next ten years under various scenarios. It analyses global trends in excess mortality and highlights the underlying factors.
Foreseeable development of excess mortality
Current figures suggest that excess mortality continues today and may continue into the next decade. General population projections suggest that excess mortality will gradually decline to 0-3% in the US and 0-2.5% in the UK by 2033.
In comparison, excess mortality in 2023 is 3 to 7 percent in the US and 5 to 8 percent in the UK. In an optimistic scenario, Swiss Re expects pandemic-related excess mortality in the US and UK to disappear by 2028 and mortality to return to pre-pandemic levels. In a pessimistic scenario, excess mortality can be expected to remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic years until 2033.
In the US, excess mortality peaked early and declined rapidly thereafter. In contrast, the early peak in the UK was followed by a slower decline. Australia delayed its peak by almost two years and then experienced a rapid decline. Canada still had very low excess mortality in 2020, with a gradual increase peaking in 2022 and 2023, reflecting a late peak and slow decline.
These patterns correlate with the responses of different countries to Covid-19 and in particular with the timing and effectiveness of the respective prevention measures. The pandemic has significantly changed the causes of excess mortality.
What is striking is the development of the main causes of death in the industrialized countries that report such data from 2020 onwards. respiratory mortality As expected, it accounts for the largest proportion of excess deaths each year. However, there is evidence of inconsistency in the causes.
Mortality higher than expected
In Germany, mortality in the years since the beginning of the pandemic has been significantly higher than the corresponding model calculations of the pension insurance system would have led to expect. As a result, pension insurance expenditure has fallen so sharply that the pension increases of recent years have not led to increases in contributions.
Regarding causes of death, there is evidence that other causes of death have been incorrectly classified as Covid-19 cases. Both the UK and US data show a sharp and unexplained increase in deaths from cardiovascular disease since 2020.
Several countries also reported an increase in mortality from other leading causes of death, such as cancer, compared to the pre-pandemic period. This may be due to cancer treatment being restricted during the pandemic.
The waning of the pandemic will not necessarily lead to a decline in excess mortality. In the long term, lifestyle factors that contribute to poorer metabolic health and can lead to obesity and diabetes are likely to be another exacerbating factor in excess mortality in the population.
