Pa, one in five will retire in the next 5 years: 682 thousand hires in sight

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The next five years will be decisive for what appears to be a real generational change within the public administration, when one in five public employees will retire. In fact, between 2024 and 2028, there will be 681,800 new hires in exchange for retirements. Not only that: additional turnover inputs of as many as 60,500 units are also expected. The picture emerges from the report “Forecasts of employment and professional needs in Italy in the medium term” produced by Excelsior together with Unioncamere.

Rejuvenation

For public offices we are moving towards a rejuvenation of the workforce which will go hand in hand with the great effort to modernize the public administration, starting from the fundamental process of digital transition. Due to the high average age of the staff, the sector is therefore the one in which a higher replacement rate is expected in the coming years. Compared to an average replacement value of just under 12%, public employment exceeds 20% (compared to 10.4% for private employees).

The overall requirement

«During the five-year period 2024-2028 – we read in the study – the public sector will have to proceed with the replacement of approximately 682 thousand public employees, equal to an average of over 135 thousand per year. This need, combined with the expected employment expansion, will generate an overall requirement of approximately 742 thousand units, of which almost 92% will be necessary for turnover.”

Education and training services

Going into detail, sector by sector, in the coming years we will search for Education eh Training services 234,500 public workers (19,800 additional and 214,700 to replace those who will retire), while 197,500 are those who will be used for Health and Social Assistance (12,400 additional and 185,500 for the replacement). Almost 310 thousand places will become available in the general services sector of the public administration and in that of compulsory social insurance (28,300 additional and 281,600 to replace those who retire).

High specializations

The analysis of needs by professional macro-group therefore highlights how the greatest requests will be those for qualified and highly specialized figures, approximately 43% of the public sector needs in the period 2024-2028. They follow technical figures with a weight of approximately 22% and the employees with a share of 21%. Tertiary education, i.e. a degree, will therefore be required for 583,300 roles. «The need for personnel with a university degree in the Education and Public Training Services sector – we read – will be just over 191 thousand units, equal to 81.5% of the sector’s needs. This share drops to 79.1% for General Public Administration Services (245 thousand units) and to 74.3% for Healthcare, social assistance and public health services (147 thousand units)”