2024-01-21 01:21:42
Good Saturday evening, everyone. It was cold and quiet across the Ozarks today with temperatures going from single digit lows this morning to highs near 20° this afternoon. While we keep it quiet for tonight and Sunday, we have some under wind chill advisories until 9 Sunday morning and some with winter storm watches out ahead of our storm system mainly for Monday.
Wind chill advisory until 9 AM Sunday for parts of northern Arkansas(KY3)Winter storm watch clipping parts of northwest Arkansas for the rain and ice Monday(KY3)
Our important weather focus in the short term continues to be the First Alert Weather Day for incoming rain and freezing rain on Monday. While I think some freezing rain could develop and move into parts of the Ozarks late Sunday night, it’s mainly focused on leaving roads slick for Monday morning.
First Alert for Ice and Rain Sunday night and into Monday morning(KY3)
Let’s talk about tonight and much of Sunday first. High pressure in control will keep skies mostly clear for tonight. As it departs tomorrow, it will allow partly sunny skies to return to the Ozarks from the west. I’m expecting lows for many to drop back mainly into the lower teens by Sunday morning. With a southeast wind at 7-15 mph in the Missouri Ozarks and 6-12 mph in northern Arkansas, that will bring wind chills back down in the single digits with some below zero in the early morning.
Lows back in the lower to middle teens for many Sunday morning(KY3)Wind chills near or below zero again Sunday morning(KY3)
With our southerly wind a bit stronger during the day (10-20 mph for many), we’ll see highs back near or just above freezing before we see skies turn mostly cloudy early Sunday evening.
Highs back near freezing Sunday afternoon(KY3)
After sunset, temperatures will drop back into the upper 20s and lower 30s below freezing for Sunday night and Monday morning. While the evening starts dry, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some rain and freezing rain show up on radar by 9 or 10 o’clock Sunday night. Given how we’ll have moisture already working in through the day on Sunday ahead of the system’s approach, this will either finish saturating the lower levels of the atmosphere or allow some freezing rain to start coming on down before midnight. After midnight, we’ll watch for off and on periods of freezing rain through the pre-dawn hours and to get your Monday morning commute started.
Some rain/freezing rain could sneak in as early as 9 or 10 o’clock Sunday night(KY3)Periods of freezing rain and drizzle for the pre-dawn hours Monday(KY3)
After the morning drive, many will have to contend with some more freezing rain through late Monday morning. By the early afternoon, though, I am expecting warmer temperatures to keep working in and start to transition our precipitation back over to rain.
Many still dealing with freezing rain through mid to late Monday morning(KY3)Western half of the Ozarks switching back to rain Monday afternoon(KY3)
By early afternoon, many in the western Ozarks (including Springfield) should have temperatures warm enough to switch over to rain chances for the rest of the day. As soon as the switch happens, we’ll stay with rain to help wash away and melt any of the accumulated ice on the roads. Like Nicolette said this morning, though, we’ll still watch the eastern Ozarks through the afternoon. Any higher elevations in the eastern Ozarks will have a little extra work to get their temperatures back above freezing. I do, however, expect everyone to be back above freezing and back over to rain chances by Monday evening.
Everyone deals with rain chances Monday evening(KY3)
As far as amounts go, I think some periods of heavier freezing rain will help us out. I say that because after dealing with ice events in Joplin over the years, any moderate or heavy freezing rain can’t accumulate like lighter freezing rain or freezing drizzle can. Since I think there could be periods of that, that should keep amounts from getting out of hand. With that and considering this isn’t a classic ice storm setup for the Ozarks, I think many in the lighter shading below will see a glaze to a tenth to almost two tenths of an inch of accumulating ice before we melt it away starting late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Areas in the southeastern Ozarks where temperatures will take a little longer to get back above freezing should see more but not too much more. For now, we’re expecting a tenth to two tenths of an inch on average with isolated spots closer to 0.3″ of ice. For now, this should mainly result in tricky roads for the morning hours for many and for some in the afternoon Monday.
Not a big ice storm, but some accumulations expected(KY3)
After Monday, temperatures look better for us. Morning lows will stay in the middle to upper 30s Tuesday through next Saturday with highs climbing back into the middle 40s to almost 50° through next week.
Back near or above average next Tuesday through next week(KY3)
With those numbers and additional disturbances on the way at times during the week, that means any precipitation chances on the way will be in the form of rain.
Midweek rain chances passing by(KY3)Another system by next weekend(KY3)
As long as the ground can thaw out fast enough before those other rain chances can come our way at times through next week, we could be ready to take in rain totals between half an inch to an inch and a half by next Saturday. We’ll keep an eye on our ice chances Monday and the additional rain chances on the way over the next several days.
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