An exit would price Austria 5.3 to 10.4 p.c of its gross home product. This was calculated by Wifo director Gabriel Felbermayr and Inga Heiland from the Norwegian College of Science and Expertise. In absolute phrases, the anticipated impact is 24 to 47 billion euros per 12 months.
The one market has the best profit for the EU, accounting for 74 p.c of the general advantages of EU membership. The Schengen zone is the second largest driver of prosperity, in keeping with the evaluation. And the financial union is the third most necessary issue.
With a view to estimate the financial advantages of EU membership, the combination steps taken to this point have to be analyzed, the evaluation states. Britain’s actual gross home product (GDP) is more likely to be 3.2 p.c to six.7 p.c decrease than it might in any other case be as a consequence of Brexit. A collapse of the EU would hit Austria a lot tougher in the long run: on the one hand, the British have a bigger home market, and alternatively, Austria can be extra affected by a solo effort as a consequence of its geographical location.
3860 euros injury per capita
Calculated per capita, this could correspond to a median financial lack of 3860 euros. The situations vary from 2735 euros to 5190 euros per capita. Within the EU rating, Austria would thus are available in sixth place out of 27 international locations, in keeping with the simulation outcomes of the 2 economists. Within the occasion of a shock “Öxit” (primarily based on Brexit), the injury can be twice as excessive within the brief time period.
Nonetheless, since Austria is a internet contributor to the EU, the prices of EU membership must be deducted from the financial advantages. Nonetheless, the annual prices are restricted at 113 to 184 euros per capita: Austria pays round three to 4 billion euros yearly, with the very best fee up to now being 3.55 billion euros in 2020. Nonetheless, lately a median of round 2.3 billion euros has flowed again to Austria for agriculture or analysis, for instance.
The EU’s financial benefit can also be mirrored within the comparability of EU members with the USA, as Heiland and Felbermayr clarify. Whereas these international locations that joined the EU from 2004 onwards achieved round 35 p.c of the USA’s per capita GDP 20 years in the past, in 2022 they already reached 57 p.c of the US degree. “About half of the noticed convergence is more likely to be causally attributable to EU membership,” the economists mentioned.
