- According to the Venezuelan Finance Observatory, the interannual consumer price index (CPI) might reach 40%. Main photo: EFE
On July 15, the Venezuelan Finance Observatory (OVF) presented its most recent survey of economic experts. The report indicated that growth expectations for the Venezuelan economy were 5%, 0.3% less than the figures revealed in the survey conducted in June.
“The survey shows a slight decrease in the economic growth projection (-0.3%) associated with the uncertainty of the presidential elections on July 28 and their implications in terms of sanctions,” the observatory said.
The NGO also maintained its estimates for the official exchange rate at 45 bolivars per dollar by the end of 2024. The NGO explained that this figure is maintained due to the “containment of the exchange rate.”
Economists surveyed by the observatory also expect the interannual consumer price index (CPI) to reach 40%, which translates into a reduction in the inflation projection of 17.5%, compared to 57.5% in the previous survey.
What is the economic expectations survey?
The Venezuelan Finance Observatory conducts a monthly survey on economic expectations for the end of the current year. This NGO consults experts in the economic field to provide figures on estimates of the country’s economic performance.
The organization takes into account various aspects that may affect data on the consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and the depreciation rate of the bolivar once morest the dollar.
“Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the survey, as well as assumptions regarding other factors that were likely to affect economic outcomes. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty,” the OVF notes in the study’s considerations.
Accumulated inflation in the first half of 2024
The OVF reported on July 4 that accumulated inflation in Venezuela reached a 18.1% during the first half of 2024following recording an average price increase of 2.4% in June.
According to OVF calculations, inflation fell 1.5 points last month compared to May, when it was 3.9%, while the annualized rate reached 68%.
The agency explained in a press release that the slowdown in inflation is due to the fall in the price of the dollar in the country, since almost all goods and services are fixed in the US currency.
Another of the causes mentioned by the OVF is the wage restraint that the government of Nicolás Maduro has been applying, since there has been no adjustment to the minimum wage or pensions since March 2022, when these incomes were set at 130 bolivars, then regarding 30 dollars and now at 3.5 dollars, according to the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Inflation by sector
The sectors that the NGO took into account in preparing this report include services, communications, household equipment and education expenses. The behavior of these sectors with respect to inflation was as follows:
– Services: 8 %
– Communications: 4.9%
– Home equipment: 3.7%
– Education: 3%
According to the OVF report, urban cleaning increased by 7.9%, cable television by 7.1%, mobile telephony by 6.3% and landline telephony by 7.3%.
The report also detailed the behavior of consumer price indices (CPI) for the month of June in the Metropolitan Area of Caracas, Zulia, Anzoátegui, and Nueva Esparta.
The state with the highest inflation figures was Anzoátegui with 4.8%, followed by Zulia with 2.7%, Nueva Esparta 2.2% and the Capital District with 1.6%.
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2024-07-15 23:40:41
