“Overcome the red lines” –

There are calls for moderation, but relations between Israel and Iran are increasingly tense. The latest move, for now unclaimed, has chosen Iraq as the theater of war. Meanwhile, we are trying to understand what the strategies of the protagonists of the Middle Eastern area will be. In an interview granted to Corriere della Sera, the political scientist Charles Kupchan tried to outline possible scenarios, first of all excluding that the tensions have already been overcome. “There are positive signs, but I would be slow to say that between Iran and Israel this is the end,” said the professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Washington.

Iran has made it known that it is not planning further attacks once morest Israel, but for the expert it is not time to draw conclusions. “Israel and Iran have both crossed red lines. Tehran has hurled more than 300 bombs into Israeli territory. Tel Aviv has hit a target in Iran. The two countries have emerged from the war in the shadow they had waged until now,” he explained . Is the hypothesis, already repeatedly aired, of an open war concrete? “The Israelis’ line of conduct is very clear: if you try to harm us, we will do it to you. Perhaps this was only the first move. However, I think that both Israel and Iran do not want to lead to open war”, he said with clarity of words.

The mutual attacks might, at the moment, be political signals. This version of events was also confirmed by Kupchan. “In a way, that’s the case. They’re demonstrating how strong their deterrent capability is. From what we know, it appears that Iran informed the United States before attacking. If it really wanted to harm Israel, it probably wouldn’t have done so. and, furthermore, it would have involved the Lebanese Hezbollah,” he said. At the moment, therefore, there are not only negative signs, “if only because the ayatollahs know that the regime would not be able to withstand a conflict with Israel, especially if supported by the United States. And, on the other hand, the majority of Israelis are aware that the air defense might be overcome if waves of missiles arrived from multiple directions, for example from Hezbollah”, he concluded.