ordering well in advance is the new normal

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It looks increasingly likely that global supply issues will affect deliveries of many purchases – from racing bikes to beds to cars – through 2022 or even 2023. For a new car, the waiting period can even exceed a year.

Choose from the limited range that is in stock, or place an order for that sofa or racing bike of your dreams, at the risk of having to wait months. This is the new dilemma many consumers face when making major purchases, as supply chain hitches take longer than expected.

In the furniture sector, long delivery times are particularly common for products that require a lot of manual work. First, some factories in Eastern Europe have not survived the pandemic, and those that have endured the crisis are facing significant staff shortages due to Covid-related quarantine regulations. Then, some parts are not available, due to problems with raw material suppliers. Wood, in particular, seems to be available only in limited quantities.

four months of waiting

“The delays are therefore accumulating in the production chain and the near future unfortunately remains unpredictable”, report several furniture stores. “There are no winners. This situation is not good for the customer, nor for us, nor for our furniture manufacturers. Wait times of four months or more are no exception.

Potential buyers who wish to avoid the uncertainty associated with long waiting times are advised to choose a sofa or bed already stocked in warehouses in Belgium. “When it comes to custom orders, we give a deadline, but we can’t rule out bad surprises,” says a furniture store.

Another solution for those who can’t wait is the second-hand market, which for several big family purchases – including cars – has seen a resurgence since the coronavirus crisis.

“Not just a problem of computer chips”

According to the leasing company Arval, even today, you have to wait months, and sometimes more than a year, to get a new car. The shortage of computer chips is often blamed. But there are many other delay factors, says the Arval Consulting research department.

“In addition to semiconductor shortages, factors that play a role include lack of raw materials, system processes within the automotive industry itself, rising transportation costs, and geopolitical tensions with Russia and China. . Aluminum, magnesium and copper have become scarce, and many plastics are also hard to find.

For years, automakers have been used to working with just-in-time deliveries. These are now collapsing as suppliers of semiconductors and other components have made long-term commitments in other sectors. “We will feel it until 2023”, fears Yves Ceurstemont of Arval Consulting.

Expensive container shipping

Research firm Oxford Economics expects bottlenecks and numerous coordination issues in the global supply chain to last at least several months. This will not only lead to delays, but also price increases, as container shipping rates from China to the rest of the world remain high.

In September 2021, European companies had to pay eight times more for the same container transport than before the pandemic. Prices seem to have stabilized since then, but today they are still around nine times higher than the low point of June 2020. Most observers expect a gradual return to “normal” prices for transport by containers only from the second half of 2022.