OPEC + oil producers are expected to opt for caution on Sunday and maintain the current cuts, on the eve of the entry into force of new sanctions once morest Moscow, pillar with Riyadh of the alliance.
The representatives of the thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Riyadh, and their ten allies led by Moscow, meet at 11:00 GMT in an electric climate.
Russia is headwind once morest the cap on the price of its oil that the European Union, the G7 and Australia have planned to put in place on Monday “or very soon following”.
It is also on this day that the EU embargo on Russian crude transported by sea begins, which will eliminate two thirds of its purchases in Moscow.
Objective of these measures: to deprive Moscow of the means to finance its war in Ukraine.
– Maintaining the expected course –
For OPEC+, the question is what will be the impact on the supply of Russian black gold.
DNB analysts refer to “great uncertainty”.
The price of a barrel of Urals crude is currently hovering around $65, barely above the $60 ceiling, implying a limited short-term effect.
But the Kremlin has warned that it will no longer deliver oil to countries that adopt this mechanism.
This puts some nations “in a very uncomfortable position: choosing between losing access to cheap Russian crude or exposing themselves to G7 sanctions”, explains Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda.
Faced with these unknowns, the alliance might decide to “stay out of the spotlight and watch if prices soar” following this new set of sanctions, underlines DNB, anticipating a “discreet” meeting.
The choice of a virtual meeting, and not at the headquarters of the cartel in Vienna, reinforces the scenario of the status quo, that is to say a drop of 2 million barrels per day in December, as in the previous months, according to the analysts. A track confirmed to AFP by an Iranian source.
– Price at half mast –
However, Craig Erlam does not rule out “a more drastic cut” to support prices, affected by the global economic gloom.
Although they have recovered slightly in recent days, helped by the timid measures to ease China’s zero Covid health policy, the two global crude benchmarks remain not far from their lowest level of the year, far from their March peaks.
Since the alliance’s last meeting in early October, Brent North Sea oil and its US equivalent, WTI, have lost more than 6%.
Even if it does not slash its quotas this Sunday, the cartel might in the coming months “take a more aggressive position”, in a warning to the West which bristles the cartel by regulating prices, predicts Edoardo Campanella, analyst at ‘UniCredit.
A strategy that risks “aggravating the global energy crisis”, he warns.
