ONS to spend millions on temp workers to fix ‘unusable’ UK employment data

Is UK Labor Data accurate? ONS Grapples with Declining Response Rates

The UK’s critical labor market data is facing a legitimacy crisis. Response rates to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Labor Force Survey (LFS),a cornerstone of economic policymaking,have plummeted,raising serious doubts about the reliability of thes figures. These figures inform crucial decisions about interest rates, employment policies, and social programs, impacting millions across the UK.

In 2019, participation in the survey hovered around 40%, but by 2023, it had fallen to a disturbing low of 12.7%. While the rate has since recovered to approximately 20%, this still means a mere 47,000 responses are used to estimate the working arrangements of 45 million peopel. Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, bluntly states, “We think that valid concerns about the quality of data from the UK’s labour force survey make it virtually unusable at present … policymakers are flying blind without reliable data.”

The ONS acknowledges the challenge, with a spokesperson highlighting their commitment to enhancement: “We strive for an honest and inclusive culture that encourages staff to feed back where challenges exist, so we can respond and move forward collectively. That is why we recently commissioned a lessons learned review to ensure the views of those involved in the transformed Labour Force Survey project were heard.”

This decline in participation poses a important threat to economic policymaking. With the Bank of England making key interest rate decisions, policymakers rely heavily on accurate labor market data to guide their actions. The recent figures, released on Tuesday, revealing both a rise in UK pay growth and a corresponding increase in unemployment in November, underscore the urgency of this issue.

To address this crisis, the ONS is taking steps to bolster the survey’s robustness. They have partnered with Randstad, a leading employment agency, to recruit more field interviewers who will engage directly with households across the UK, encouraging participation in the online surveys.

Though, unions representing ONS staff argue that these measures are merely a temporary fix. They are calling for a more fundamental solution,urging the ONS to prioritize addressing long-term issues such as low pay,government funding cuts,and staff morale. “rather than giving huge sums of money to an agency to provide what woudl be a temporary fix, ONS management would be better investing in addressing long-term recruitment and retention issues,” asserts Fran Heathcote, general secretary of the PCS trade union.

Nik Males, representing the Prospect trade union, adds, “They need to wake up and smell the coffee.Political and economic decisions are being made on the back of data that could be gathered more effectively.”

The ONS is actively exploring ways to prioritize online surveys,aiming to adapt to changing participation patterns,acknowledging that the landscape has been significantly impacted by the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. They also aim to launch a “transformed labor force survey” as a long-term solution, stating, “as a new self-completion survey it has taken time to fully develop, to ensure we are achieving the quality necessary for users. we recently tested a shorter version of the questionnaire aimed at further improving data quality. We will provide an update on next steps in the spring.”

Facing the Facts: Can the UK’s Labor Force Survey Be Saved?

The UK’s Labor Force Survey (LFS) – a cornerstone of economic data – is facing a turbulent period. Declining response rates and a growing disconnect with modern interaction trends have raised serious concerns about its reliability. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), tasked with managing the LFS, is facing mounting pressure to address these issues and restore public confidence in the survey’s findings.

with a hefty £8 million investment, the ONS is taking decisive steps to combat these challenges.This funding will be channeled towards recruiting and training new field interviewers in partnership with employment agency Randstad. This strategic move aims to bridge the gap with households struggling with online engagement, fostering a more personalized and inclusive approach to data collection.

“We are committed to providing workers with competitive pay and benefits that meet or exceed industry standards,” a Randstad spokesperson assured us.

The urgency of the situation is underscored by the words of Andrew Goodwin from Oxford Economics, who has boldly stated that the LFS is “virtually unusable” in its current state. This stark assessment highlights the gravity of the situation and the urgent need for comprehensive reform.

The ONS acknowledges the gravity of these concerns and is actively pursuing a multi-pronged strategy. “We take these concerns very seriously. The ONS is working tirelessly to address the issues we face,” declares Jonny bradshaw, chief Executive of the ONS. The partnership with Randstad represents a crucial step, but it also emphasizes the importance of internal investment. The ONS is committed to developing innovative technologies and survey methods to enhance data accuracy and reliability.

Though, this commitment faces a significant hurdle – the voice of the workforce. Trade unions, particularly the PCS and prospect unions, argue that the reliance on external interviewers is a temporary fix.Frans Heathcote from the PCS union emphasizes the need to address long-standing issues like low pay and staff morale, wich are at the root of the problem.

Nik Males from the Prospect union takes a more direct approach, urging the ONS to “wake up and smell the coffee” regarding the need for political and systemic change within the institution.

the ONS recognizes the validity of these concerns and is actively engaging in dialog with the unions. Bradshaw insists that addressing long-term issues is a priority. “We agree that addressing long-term issues is crucial, and we’re working on holistic solutions,” he states.

Ultimately,the future of the LFS hinges on the ability of the ONS to bridge the gap between its current methods and the evolving needs of the workforce. A successful outcome will require a genuine commitment to clarity, collaboration, and a willingness to adapt to the changing landscape of data collection in the 21st century.

Reimagining Labour Market Data: A Look at the Future of the LFS

The UK’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a vital source of facts for understanding the nation’s labour market. It informs critical economic decisions, providing insights into employment rates, unemployment trends, and workforce participation. But, like any long-standing system, the LFS is constantly evolving to ensure it remains a reliable and relevant barometer of the UK economy.

We recently spoke with ONS officials to delve into the exciting changes underway at the LFS and understand their impact on policymaking.

Building Trust and Transparency

“Our key priority is restoring faith in the LFS as the gold standard for labour market statistics,” shared a representative from the ONS. “We’ll achieve this by improving response rates, enhancing our methods, and being obvious about our progress.”

The ONS recognizes the importance of open communication and clear guidance when it comes to data interpretation. As the representative explained, “We maintain open communications with policymakers, providing clear context and guidance about our data. We’re clear about any changes in methodology or uncertainties, and we work hard to ensure our users understand what the LFS can and can’t tell them.”

Embracing New Frontiers

The future of the LFS is firmly rooted in innovation. The ONS is actively exploring new data sources and methods to complement the traditional survey approach. this includes a significant shift towards becoming an “online-first” survey, with follow-up from field interviewers in specific areas.

These changes reflect the evolving landscape of data collection and the need to leverage the latest technologies to ensure the LFS remains relevant and insightful.

Looking Ahead: A Dynamic Future for Labour Market Data

The LFS is poised for a dynamic future. The upcoming months and years will see increased engagement with households, the integration of innovative data sources, and a continued commitment to transparency and open communication. The ultimate goal is to ensure the LFS continues to serve as a cornerstone for informed economic policy decisions in the UK.

What specific steps is the ONS taking to improve the response rate to the Labor force Survey beyond the partnership with Randstad?

[Archyde News Interview]

[Featured guest: Jonny Bradshaw, Chief Executive of the Office for National Statistics (ONS)]

[ETA: March 2023]

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Archyde: Thank you, Mr. Bradshaw, for joining us today to discuss the challenges facing the UK’s Labor Force Survey (LFS).The response rates have been alarmingly low, and the survey’s reliability has been questioned. Can you give us an update on the current state of the LFS?

Jonny Bradshaw: Thank you for having me. Indeed, the LFS is facing meaningful challenges, and we’re taking them very seriously. Our response rates have recovered somewhat from the lowest point but are still far from ideal. We’re now at around 20%, which is why we’re investing heavily in improvements.

Archyde: One of the steps taken is the £8 million partnership with Randstad to recruit and train field interviewers. Can you tell us more about this initiative?

Jonny Bradshaw: Absolutely. We recognize that households engage differently now, with online interactions being the norm. We’re trying to bridge that gap by having interviewers reach out directly to households, encouraging participation in our online surveys. Randstad has been a valuable partner in this process, helping us access a larger talent pool and providing training to these interviewers.

Archyde: However, trade unions like PCS and Prospect argue that this is merely a Band-Aid solution. They believe that investing in long-term issues such as low pay, government funding cuts, and staff morale would be more beneficial. How do you respond to these criticisms?

Jonny Bradshaw: We understand and respect the unions’ viewpoint.Addressing staff issues is indeed crucial,and we’re committed to improving pay,benefits,and working conditions for our staff.However, we also have an immediate issue with response rates that needs urgent attention.The Randstad initiative is one part of our multi-pronged strategy. We’re also exploring innovative technology and survey methods to enhance data accuracy and reliability. It’s not either/or; both are significant, and we’re working on both fronts simultaneously.

Archyde: The ONS has acknowledged the importance of adapting to changing participation patterns, impacted largely by the COVID-19 pandemic. Can you give us an update on the ‘transformed labor force survey’ and what steps are being taken to ensure its quality and the confidence of data users?

Jonny Bradshaw: We’re working diligently on the transformed LFS, a new self-completion survey that takes into account evolving societal changes. We’ve been testing shorter versions of the questionnaire to improve data quality. We understand the critical role the LFS plays in informing policy decisions, and we’re committed to delivering robust, reliable data. We’ll provide an update on the next steps in the spring.

archyde: Lastly, Oxford Economics has described the current LFS as ‘virtually unusable’. do you believe that’s a fair assessment, and if so, what steps are being taken to address this?

Jonny Bradshaw: We understand the gravity of the situation and acknowledge the concerns raised. We’re continuously evaluating and improving our methods to ensure we provide the most accurate and reliable data possible. The partnership with Randstad, investments in technology, and the development of the transformed LFS are all part of our efforts to address these concerns and restore confidence in the LFS.

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archyde News thanks Jonny Bradshaw for his time and insight into the ongoing efforts to address the challenges facing the UK’s Labor Force survey. we will continue to monitor and report on this critical issue.

[End of Interview]