The seven important swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. According to “Independent“ Harris could win on November 5th if she wins the three northern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is particularly important.
Close race in Pennsylvania
Jonathan Martin from “Politico” emphasizes that Harris must win Pennsylvania to have a clear chance of winning the 270 electoral votes. If she fails there, she could still win by winning either North Carolina or Georgia, provided she also takes Michigan and Wisconsin.
Harris is currently six points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. She is also leading in other polls by the New York Times, Franklin & Marshall and the Washington Post. Harris has campaigned extensively in Pennsylvania, including introducing her running mate Tim Walz in Philadelphia. Nevertheless, Pennsylvania remains a difficult state for the Democrats to win.
Alternatives in Georgia and North Carolina
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Harris would have to be ahead in North Carolina or Georgia to become president, according to the Independent. Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008 and Biden won Georgia in 2020. Harris is counting on the support of influential figures such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams in Georgia. It will be particularly important to win over black voters and moderate conservatives.
Trump is also investing heavily in advertising in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and recently invested $17 million in North Carolina. However, Trump has poor relations with Republicans in Georgia, such as Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, which could hurt him there. His support for the controversial Mark Robinson in North Carolina could cost him voters there.
