2024-09-22 10:23:35
From our correspondent in the region. – Just one year after its creation, the Alliance of Sahel States, a mutual defense pact between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, has just suffered an unprecedented setback during the double attack perpetrated Tuesday in Bamako by the Jnim, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, in the heart of the Malian capital. Despite its denials, the AES is facing a serious security deterioration in the region.
In Bamako, after the shock comes the time for questions. On September 17, the Faladié gendarmerie school and then the airport base 101, two strategic sites in the Malian capital, found themselves under fire from the jihadists of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (Jnim or GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, in an unprecedented double attack.
“The situation is under control. The infiltrated terrorists have been neutralized,” assured Malian General Oumar Diarra, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, after the first attack that occurred at dawn. A few hours later, videos filmed by jihadists showed them shooting in a deserted hall of the airport and setting fire to the engine of a plane that appeared to belong to the official fleet. Other images showed thick smoke rising from the presidential hangar. The two attacks left at least 70 dead and more than 200 injured, according to initial estimates from security sources.
A bitter defeat for Malian transitional president Assimi Goïta, who two days earlier celebrated the “important victories” which have “weakened the armed terrorist groups” since the creation of the‘Alliance of States du Sahel (AES)This mutual defense pact was concluded between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso on September 16, 2023, to restore peace in the three countries plagued by jihadist violence.
Security fragility
“We continue to fight relentlessly against all forms of terrorism, to defend the integrity of our territories and our sovereignty,” declared, confidently, Assimi Goïta, current president of the AES, to l‘occasion of the first anniversary of this alliance. He then announced the creation of a biometric passport and a common information channel.
Also readDouble Al-Qaeda attack in Bamako: Mali faces the limits of its security strategy
“Reality quickly caught up with the discourse,” analyzes Amara Mohamed, a Malian sociologist, for whom “a fragility of the security apparatus” prevented the intelligence agencies from anticipating the events in Bamako. That same day, while gunshots rang out in the city, Assimi Goïta was in the middle of a meeting with a delegation from the Confederation of Sahel States to discuss defense, but also diplomacy and development.
Created following the coup d’état in Niger on July 26, 2023, when the Economic Community of States d‘Africa of the‘Ouest (Chelpto the) threatened to intervene militarily in Niamey, the Alliance of Sahel States had a purely security-related aim, before becoming a confederation last JulyAccording to the basic texts, the three countries commit to sharing information, intelligence, cooperation and mutual defense.
The surprise effect of jihadist groups
“The AES is mainly focused on protecting military bases, rather than on increased surveillance of terrorist groups, for whom it is a boon,” continues Amara Mohamed. “It is therefore easy for jihadists to settle in the tri-border area [située au Sahel entre le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, NDLR] or go down to Bamako.”
D’après l’ONG Acled (Armed conflict location and event data)which collects data on armed conflicts, the number of civilians killed has continued to rise in the three countries, leaving more than 10,000 dead in 2023. A figure that has tripled since 2020. In Mali, 14% of the population is now exposed to conflict. On Friday, September 20, after suffering two attacks in two days in the northwest and southeast of the country, the government of Niger announced “exceptional security measures.”
“Jihadist groups will always be one step ahead of the AES armies”
In Burkina Faso, particularly in the Mouhoun loop (north-west), the number of “violent political events” is expected to increase by 50% during the second half of 2024, according to forecasts made by AcledOn August 24, more than 200 civilians were killed in l‘attaque de Barsaloghoin the north-central part of the country. “The attack on Barsalogho, like that of Bamako [au Mali]is unpredictable,” analyses Amara Mohamed. “With such a surprise effect, the jihadist groups will always be one step ahead of the AES armies,” explains the sociologist.
War of communication
However, the official communication of the ESA does not budge: according to it, since the creation of a joint force of the ESA States at the beginning of March, victories have been coming one after the other in the region.
“At the end of July, the AES Joint Force set foot on Tin Zaouatine [dans le nord du Mali]. Thus, the last stronghold of the terrorist coalition falls after Left-handed“, we could hear on Burkinabe national television. On the other side of the front, members of the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA), a predominantly Tuareg independence group, have nevertheless assured of their victory over the‘Malian army and its Russian auxiliaries.
“The only strong point of the AES is its excessive communication,” Amara Mohamed continues. “It is difficult to quantify the share of truths and untruths in what is said.” According to him, a part of the rural youth, galvanized by the fight against the West, believes in this dream of freedom and independence sold by the Alliance.
The game of alliances
“We must not confuse the battles against the CSP-PDA with those against terrorist groups,” the sociologist adds, denouncing the confusion. “Kidal, Tin Zaouatine… It’s political. The Malian authorities could find a new agreement with the rebels, while the jihadist groups, with ideological motivations, are closed to negotiations.”
While Assimi Goïta accuses Ukraine of “siding with terrorism in the Sahel” by supporting the CSP, the partnership between Russia and Mali is shaping up to be, less effective than expected.
The game of alliances does not stop there. On September 1, the pro-independence groups of northern Mali (CSP-PDA) announced that they would pool their forces with the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL), a Nigerian rebel movement. As for the government in Niamey, it preferred to keep one foot in ECOWAS by meeting a delegation from Nigeria at the end of August, with which it shares a sensitive border.
Although the two countries have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at strengthening their security cooperation, Niger does not intend to distance itself from its two putschist neighbors. On Wednesday, a delegation of parliamentary officials traveled to Ouagadougou, just as the Malians did before them. With the aim of soon creating a parliament of the AES confederation.
1727014146
#year #security #failure #face #jihadist #attacks
