2024-08-16 08:00:00
<南海海槽臨時資訊詢問②>
On August 15, the government ended the emergency warning for the Nankai Trough earthquake, “Beware of a major earthquake.” The week-long warning coincides with the Obon holiday, and the mood of self-restraint has a major impact on tourist destinations. Tokyo News and Society reporter Ozawa Keiichi, who continued to question the relationship between science and politics during the Nankai Trough earthquake and won the Kikuchi Hiroshi Prize for his book “The Truth about the Nankai Trough Earthquake,” asked the three questions about the anomaly. Questions about the nature of the information. (The final episode will be released later)
◆Problems that arise in the first speech and how to convey the message
“I wonder if we have fully understood the temporary information system, and I think what kind of information should be released on August 8 (when the Nankai Trough earthquake special information = major earthquake warning).”
August 15th at 5pm. After an earthquake with an intensity of less than 6 magnitude occurred in Miyazaki Prefecture on the 8th, the government has ended the issuance of emergency warnings, the relevant person in charge said at a press conference. The purpose of the first special message was to “use uncertain information to prevent disasters,” but it raised questions about the way it was communicated.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed Minister of Disaster Prevention Yoshifumi Matsumura on the 15th to study this series of response measures. Based on the verification results, the government plans to revise guidelines to instruct the public, businesses and others on how to respond to unusual information. “I feel again that it is crucial to make the content of information disseminated easy for the public to understand and to cooperate regularly with business organizations,” Mr. Matsumura told a news conference.
◆Specific measures will be formulated by local governments, enterprises and individuals
This temporary information is developed to replace the “warning statement” in the “Law on Special Measures for Major Earthquakes” (“Major Earthquake Law”) based on earthquake predictions. Predicting earthquakes has become impossible, and predictions are based on statistical data and full of uncertainty. The government issues information, but specific measures are decided by local governments, businesses and individuals.
The Japan Meteorological Agency and the Cabinet Office pointed out at a press conference on the 15th that the purpose of continuing social activities for earthquake prevention may not be clearly conveyed in the announcement on the 8th. This does not exist.
The person in front of the announcement on the 8th was not a government official, but Naoshi Hirata, the seismologist and chairman of the Nankai Trough Seismic Assessment Research Group.
Nao Hirata, chairman of the Earthquake Disaster Prevention Countermeasures Regional Determination Committee, held a press conference after completing the evaluation review meeting of the Japan Meteorological Agency on the 8th (Photo by Yu Kido)
While asking about countermeasures, he said, “From a seismological point of view, it is extremely likely that the intensity of an earthquake will be several times greater.” “Reconfirm daily earthquake preparations,” “Check evacuation routes and go to shelters.” ” he replied gently.
◆There will be no review meeting at the end of the conference call.
Whether to issue an early warning message will be decided after an evaluation meeting held by experts. On the other hand, when the call ended, there was no review meeting and Mr. Hirata did not hold a press conference. This is because if there is no call, the competition will end in a week.
What are the reasons for establishing such a system? Lifting the alert on the grounds that the possibility of the epidemic has not increased requires a solid basis. This is actually a safety declaration. However, since it is impossible to make accurate predictions, it is impossible to decide whether to lift the ban based on scientific evidence. Therefore, based on the results of a survey of residents’ socially acceptable time periods, we have decided to end the “one week” call.
“Residents will be held accountable for a week,” said Professor Manabu Hashimoto of Kyoto University’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute. “In the past, issuing warnings required the government to order immediate response measures, but provisional information is scientifically based.” “There is a lack of confidence in this, so the establishment Such a system is so that even if something goes wrong, the government cannot be blamed.
◆”The effectiveness and side effects of self-restraint need to be verified”
“We need to strike a balance between the effectiveness of providing information and the risk of ‘missing out,'” said Professor Hayashi Ji-sung of Kansai University’s Faculty of Social Security.
The warning had multiple impacts, including a series of trip cancellations and rail companies slowing operations. Yasuhiro Oe, the mayor of Shirahama Town in Wakayama Prefecture, where the beach resort is located, revealed on the 15th that a series of canceled events due to temporary information caused losses of “approximately 500 million yen.” All beaches in town are closed. They plan to submit a petition to the Cabinet Office and other authorities on the 21st to seek support.
In the past, the government has estimated that economic losses would be “hundreds of billions of yen per day” if the “alert declaration” for the Tokai Earthquake is lifted, but there is no estimate on special information.
Lin pointed out. “Considering costs is taboo in terms of disaster prevention. Provisional information is a disaster prevention action that uses uncertain evidence, so it is necessary to verify its effectiveness and side effects.”
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