2024-01-28 04:13:15
The top candidates of the five major parties for the EU elections have been determined since Saturday. Green career changer Lena Schilling will face four “experienced” men at the polls on June 9th, as political expert Thomas Hofer and pollster Peter Hajek discussed in an APA interview. This gives the Greens a “unique selling point,” said Hofer. The election campaign will probably be dominated by domestic politics, but international issues are also likely to play a role.
After Helmut Brandstätter was officially chosen as the NEOS candidate on Saturday, all of the top candidates from the five factions represented in the EU Parliament have now been confirmed. In addition to Bandstätter, Reinhold Lopatka (ÖVP), Andreas Schieder (SPÖ), Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ) and Lena Schilling (Greens) are leading the respective parties in the race for seats in the EU Parliament.
Schilling benefits from the fact that four “similar” candidates are running on the other side – “not in terms of political orientation, but in terms of profile: older and male,” said Hofer. This would give the Greens “really a unique selling point”: “A young woman who is running for the Greens as a career changer.” “You can use that” – and Schilling also presents himself as “the bulwark once morest the right.”
The previous climate activist covers the Greens’ key issues, but of course she “cannot have the thematic breadth that Werner Kogler has.” It might bring support to the Greens, among other things, at the level of the NGO camp – a very critical area for the Greens. It also shines primarily “into its own target group”. Hofer does not see the young age of the top candidate (23) as a problem. For example, her first ZiB2 appearance was “quite successful” – an opinion that Hajek also agreed with.
“The situation strikingly reminds me of 2019 – back then there was also a young challenger in Claudia Gamon (NEOS),” said Hajek. Schilling has, of course, been noticed in the past because she “failed to follow the law with some occupations and blockades,” said Hajek, recalling her actions as a climate activist. “She’s open on this flank. But that won’t matter to her electorate.” However, this gives competitors the opportunity to distinguish themselves. “It’s less regarding trying to lure voters away from Schilling and more regarding signaling to your own voters that ‘we won’t let this pass’.”
Of course, the FPÖ and ÖVP would probably try to “move them closer to the climate activists. There will certainly be polarization, but that doesn’t have to hurt the Greens,” said Hofer.
The four candidates from ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS describe Hofer and Hajek as “very experienced”. Hofer noted that the SPÖ and ÖVP candidates, Schieder and Lopatka, “of course also have certain weaknesses – in the sense that the mobilization factor beyond the core clientele becomes difficult.”
The ÖVP had not succeeded in fielding a major driving force – such as a minister – as the top candidate, Hofer pointed out rejections, for example from Europe and Constitutional Minister Karoline Edtstadler. “Reinhold Lopatka has been a loyal comrade-in-arms for decades” and has therefore accepted the top candidacy. It is clear that no minister wanted to enter the race: “Because there is nothing to win.”
“Lopatka is expected to hold the line and be tough on migration.” The long-time ÖVP politician was an “expected choice”, “but not a story that can be used to move towards expansion”. For the ÖVP it is regarding keeping losses within limits. According to surveys, it seems certain that the People’s Party is likely to fall from 34.6 percent in 2019. Hofer also recalled that the ÖVP was still at a high in 2019. Now it’s regarding “limiting the damage.”
With candidate Schieder, the SPÖ also relied on a “well-known candidate” and not, as in earlier times, on a dazzling newcomer (such as Hans-Peter Martin). The current SPÖ delegation leader “will not radiate much beyond his own camp,” said Hofer. For the SPÖ it is regarding leaving the ÖVP behind and defending the FPÖ from first place.
Regarding the FPÖ candidate Vilimsky, Hofer said that he was also a candidate with “manageable charisma”. This time the FPÖ is also regarding a pan-European narrative, Hofer referred to joint appearances by FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl and AfD leader Alice Weidel. This appearance fits into the new narrative that we can – together – influence the course at EU level.
The FPÖ must be careful not to “drift too much towards the extremism debate” during the election campaign, said Hofer, referring to the AfD ban debate in Germany. At the same time, he emphasized that this would not impress many liberal voters. In addition, the FPÖ under Kickl managed to establish a “direct line” to the majority of its voters – via social networks and its own channels.
The FPÖ has to be careful to ensure that the tone is “not too shrill,” Hofer pointed out, for example, regarding Kickl’s statements that he has “wanted lists” of political opponents. This also includes the wording of “remigration” adopted by the Identitarians: This is a further tightening of the FPÖ’s already rigid migration course, “but which is definitely capable of gaining a majority,” said Hofer.
For the FPÖ, the most important thing is whether it can mobilize its voters, said Hajek. The survey data would suggest that she might succeed in this EU election – “not to the same extent as for the National Council election, but still.” Hajek explained that, according to surveys, FPÖ voters are better mobilized than in the previous EU elections by saying that they have learned that you have to strengthen your preferred party if you want to change something at the EU level. There is also a move towards “reminder voting”. Hajek sees the main issue on the right as migration. All other topics – such as opposition to “wokeness” or criticism of gender – are sideshows.
NEOS candidate Helmut Brandstätter also serves his own target group, says Hofer. He might communicate as an “experienced politician and ex-journalist,” said Hajek. With the message that a consolidated, deeper Europe is needed, he will distance himself primarily from the ÖVP and FPÖ.
Thematically, both Hofer and Hajek expect a very domestically charged election campaign, which will also include international issues such as the Russia sanctions, migration and the war in the Gaza Strip. “If the election campaign is charged with domestic politics, it doesn’t mean that there are no international issues,” said Hofer.
The debate regarding the fight once morest the right, which has recently escalated, “doesn’t have to hurt the FPÖ.” In this regard, there will be a “certain competition” between the SPÖ, the Greens and NEOS, said the expert. “The fundamental escalation”, the “polarization” might benefit both poles.
The ÖVP sees Hofer “in a certain predicament” when it comes to all of the issues. Their motto is: “Yes, we are also once morest wokeness, once morest climate protection requirements, but not as radical as the FPÖ and certainly not with Kickl.” There is a match between the ÖVP and FPÖ over target groups, “that’s already half a million voters.” Here the ÖVP has to practice the balancing act between its message “We are the middle” and sharpening certain positions that the FPÖ also holds.
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