Brent ended up 0.70% at $90.46 and WTI ended up 0.66% at $83.49.
Oil prices ended slightly higher on Thursday, in a market that reacted only weakly to the Russian escalation in the Ukrainian conflict, but more concerned regarding the consequences on demand of the general monetary tightening.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in November, gained 0.70%, to close at 90.46 dollars.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also due in November, took 0.66% to 83.49 dollars.
Just like Wednesday, prices had gained momentum earlier in the day, but the momentum faltered once more.
While the war in Ukraine and its consequences have been rain and shine on the markets for more than six months, Vladimir Putin’s latest statements on the subject on Wednesday had a moderate effect on operators.
The Russian president announced the “partial” mobilization of some 300,000 reservists and brandished the threat of recourse to nuclear weapons to “protect Russia”, the day following the convening of a “referendum” of annexation by the authorities installed by Moscow in four regions of Ukraine.
“Are things going to change in the short term as far as Russia is concerned? Not really”, argued Phil Flynn, of Price Futures Group, to justify the little impact of these latest developments.
“They will continue to export oil, and China and India will continue to buy it from them,” continued the analyst.
“In the short term,” he said, “the market is more focused on the Federal Reserve, which might push us into a recession.”
The US central bank (Fed) raised its key rate by 0.75 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled that it might approach 5%, while investors saw 4.50% as a ceiling.
Subject to headwinds, between the constraints on supply and the fear of a slump in demand, the WTI has been evolving between 82 and 88 dollars for ten days, encountering resistance at these two levels.
It’s “the calm before the storm”, nevertheless warns Phil Flynn, for whom the fundamentals remain oriented upwards.
A diagnosis shared by JPMorgan analysts, who see Brent once once more close to $100 by the end of the year.
They cite in particular the scheduled entry into force of the European embargo on Russian oil, at the beginning of December, the end of drains on American strategic reserves and the low probability of a resurrection of the Iranian nuclear agreement.