Soaring prices and economic difficulties are beginning to weigh on global oil demand, but not enough to ease the market in a context of uncertain supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
In this volatile context, the IEA again stressed the importance of measures aimed at moderating fuel demand and prices.
‘In the absence of strong interventions on energy consumption, the world economy is very likely to miss its recovery’, warns the Agency in its monthly report on oil.
Soaring fuel prices are beginning to weigh on oil consumption in the OECD, notes the IEA. But this slowdown is largely offset by a rebound in demand elsewhere, with the recovery in China and the need for fuel for electricity production.
The forecast for global demand growth is thus reduced for 2022, but ‘marginally’ at this stage, to reach 99.2 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
Last month, the agency forecast 99.4 mb/d.
In fact, global demand should well exceed pre-Covid-19 levels in 2023.
With an additional 2.1 mb/d, it should reach 101.3 mb/d.
On the supply side, the IEA notes a ‘resilience’ of Russian production, a ‘surprising performance’ despite the sanctions, and increased supply in June from the United States and Canada.
Global oil production should therefore increase by the end of the year, and global supply will reach a daily average of 100.1 mb/d in 2022. But at 101.1 mb/d expected in 2023, the supply would be below demand.
While the European embargo on Russian oil has yet to take full effect and world stocks are particularly low, the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 is particularly awaited. During this meeting, the group’s strategy for September, or even beyond, must be decided.
‘Rarely has the outlook for the oil markets been more uncertain’, between ‘deterioration of the economic situation, fears of recession and risks on the supply side’, notes the IEA in its report, stressing the importance of measures on consumption.
/ATS