"Oil Price Update: Closing Prices, Chinese Indicators, and Russia's Impact on OPEC+"

2023-05-31 21:27:58

Closing price: Oil prices remained on a downward trend on Wednesday, undermined by Chinese indicators considered disappointing, against a backdrop of abundant demand fueled by Russia, which is going it alone and weakening the influence of the OPEC + alliance.

The price per barrel of Brent BRENT Brent or North Sea crude is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It has become the first international standard for setting oil prices. of the North Sea for delivery in July, of which it was the last day of quotation, ended down 1,19%To 72,66 dollars.

As for the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in pricing crude oil and as a commodity for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.) American, also expiring in July, he ceded 1,97%To 68,09 dollars.

???????? For Oanda analyst Edward Moya, the market reacted badly to PMI activity indicators released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that the manufacturing industry continued to contract in May, but also that the service sector had slowed its progress.

“These figures are disappointing and come from the world’s largest importer“said Susannah Streeter, of Hargreaves Lansdown.

???????? For Carsten Fritsch, from Commerzbank, operators are also worried about the continuation of a proactive monetary policy by the American central bank (Fed), not convinced by the recent deceleration in inflation, which could penalize demand black gold.

???? The appreciation of the dollar has also put prices under pressure. Since most oil contracts are denominated in greenbacks, a rise in the dollar often causes a mechanical contraction in the price of crude oil to neutralize the exchange rate effect.

Added to these factors are technical elements, according to Andrew Lebow of Commodity Research Group. Tuesday’s slump pushed prices past lower technical thresholds and triggered automatic selling as well as speculative repositioning to the downside.

???????? On the supply side, “the market is increasingly concerned about Russian production“, who has “perhaps been reduced to the margins, but certainly not 500,000 barrels per day they promised” in February, explains the analyst.

Some 2.5 million barrels were exported daily in May from Russia’s three western ports, Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga and Promorsk, according to Bloomberg, a peak since October 2018, when it started compiling these data.

“Russia weakens“the position of the OPEC+ alliance, formed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners in the OPEC+ agreement, according to Andrew Lebow.

???????? “The Saudis will end up wondering whether to continue to reduce their production and give up market share to Russia, which is not reducing its exports.“, anticipates the analyst, while a ministerial meeting of OPEC + members is to be held on Sunday.