Oil prices have fallen by a quarter since mid-June and this shattering fallout might continue, especially in the event of an Iranian nuclear agreement, analysts believe, even if this should not be enough to curb inflation. The black gold market had started the year with a bang, with the prospect of a halt in Russian exports frightening investors even as the end of confinements boosted demand. The barrel of Brent, the European reference price, had approached 140 dollars at the beginning of March, in the first weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when the United States, the European Union and their partners multiplied the sanctions once morest Moscow. .
But since mid-June, “the outlook for demand has suffered from fears of recession, the dollar is too strong (…) and Chinese imports too weak”, lists Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. Barrel prices are fixed in dollars, so its recent rise weighs on the purchasing power of importers using other currencies. As a result, the price of a barrel is now moving around 95 dollars for Brent and 90 dollars for WTI, the American reference, which even fell to 85.73 at the close this week, its lowest since the end of January. In their wake, prices at the pump have also returned to their levels at the start of the year, particularly in France, where refueling costs an average of 1.79 euros per liter, as at the end of February.
However, UBS still expects crude prices to rise to around $125 a barrel for Brent at the end of the year “with the continued decline in Russian exports, the end of the use of strategic reserves and a rise in Chinese imports”, explains Staunovo.
Oil prices have fallen by a quarter since mid-June and this shattering fallout might continue, especially in the event of an Iranian nuclear agreement, analysts believe, even if this should not be enough to curb inflation. The black gold market had started the year with a bang, with the prospect of a halt in Russian exports frightening investors…
