2023-06-26 17:37:03
Officials and organizations in the oil sector confirm the increase in global demand for fuel for several years to come. On the other hand, some specialized statistics indicate that the percentage of renewable energy, such as solar, wind and hydroelectric energy, is still small and does not meet the growing demand, which raises questions regarding the current percentages. And future expectations for the future of the energy sector, at a time when international efforts are being made to combat climate change and preserve the environment.
“The growth of renewable energy has not kept pace with the growth in global energy consumption,” Amin Al-Nasser, CEO of the giant Saudi oil company “Aramco,” said during the Asia Energy Conference in Malaysia, Monday, stressing that “the completion of the global energy transition in just a quarter of a century is imaginary.” “.
For his part, Haitham Al-Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said, on Monday, during the same conference, that OPEC expects an increase in global energy demand to 110 million barrels per day, and that total energy demand will increase by 23 percent by 2045.
economic meaning
The economist, Reda Al-Shakandali, believes that oil will remain in control of the global energy market for at least one decade, and he talked regarding obstacles that hinder the implementation of renewable energy projects.
Al-Shindali said in his interview with Al-Hurra: “There is an international trend, in light of the conflict in Ukraine, especially in Europe, towards the southern bank of the Mediterranean, Tunisia and Algeria as an example, and there are very important projects on the horizon with the European side, funded by the World Bank, to move towards Renewable energy”.
“These projects remain in the long term, not even in the medium term, because there is a need to establish the infrastructure for them, and it takes many years for them to be implemented,” he added.
He pointed out that there is also “a vision in Saudi Arabia beyond oil, an orientation towards renewable energies, and the diversification of the Saudi economy, so that it is not linked to oil revenues.”
However, he stressed that in exchange for all this, and until these projects are implemented, “petroleum will continue to play the main role in the energy sector in all countries, especially developed countries.”
Al-Nasser added, during the conference, that the fundamentals of the global oil market are expected to remain strong for the rest of this year, supported by strong demand from developing countries, especially China and India.
“Despite the risks of recession in many OECD countries, the economies of developing countries, especially China and India, are leading to strong growth in oil demand by more than two million barrels per day this year,” he said, noting that “although China is facing economic hurdles, the transportation and petrochemical sectors are still showing signs of demand growth.
Al-Skandali says, “In fact, oil and gas is a very important factor in determining the economic policies of countries (..), especially the developed ones. During the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we witnessed how the rise in global oil prices affected them, in addition to inflation and monetary policies that harmed the economies of these countries.” And it produced major crises, including the collapse of some banks in America and Europe.
He stressed that “petroleum still plays the main role for at least 10 years (…) and until then, countries, including oil ones, will be preparing for the post-oil phase.”
obstructions
The economist pointed out that financing is the most important obstacle to the implementation of renewable energy projects.
He said, “All countries that are heading towards renewable energy projects are still far from achieving their strategic goals. For example, Tunisia is still in the establishment stage of linking with Europe (..) and that requires at least 5 years to prepare the infrastructure, and it will not be lost.” Oil gained global status only following many years.”
And he hinted that electrical interconnection projects from renewable energy sources, “where the countries of the North (Europe) want to benefit from the sun in the countries of the South (North Africa), require a large financing capacity on the part of developed countries, and these countries are in fact experiencing great problems at the economic level, and therefore Progress in these projects is linked to their financing capacity.
He added, “There is a big problem that haunts European countries, which is the immigration file, and Europe wants to address this problem from a security point of view, and it may fail to do so, which negatively affects such projects.”
He explained that “these projects are presented on the basis of fixing employment in the countries of the south, but when economic and social stability is absent from these countries, it threatens the possibility of implementing such projects and delays them for other years.”
European show
On June 11, the European Union proposed “strengthening the partnership” with Tunisia through a program that includes long-term financial aid worth 900 million euros ($982 million) and an additional aid of 150 million to be pumped “immediately” into the budget, according to AFP.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that she proposed to the Tunisian President, Kais Said, a five-point program that includes support for the fight once morest clandestine immigration.
She expressed her hope that an agreement would be signed between Tunisia and the European Union by the next European summit, which is supposed to be held at the end of this month.
“It is in our common interest to strengthen our relationship and invest in stability and prosperity, and that is why we are here,” she added, stressing that she is working on behalf of “Team Europe.”
She noted that the European Union is Tunisia’s “first trading partner and first investor”.
The five points proposed by the European Union provide for increased investment in Tunisia, particularly in supporting the digital sector, investments in Tunisia’s export of renewable energies and the expansion of the student exchange program (Erasmus).
One of Brussels’ proposals relates to combating the “disgraceful acts” of clandestine immigration, for which the European Union will provide Tunisia “this year 100 million euros to monitor its borders and search for and rescue migrants,” according to von der Leyen.
Numbers and statistics
A report prepared by the “Energy” Institute, published by the newspaper “GuardianOn Monday, fossil fuels accounted for 82% of the total energy consumption in the world in 2022.
It is expected that global energy consumption will rise further next year, which may lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, following China ended its strict restrictions imposed to combat the Corona pandemic, and opened the door to travel to it once more this year, which increases the consumption of aviation fuel.
“Despite strong growth in wind and solar power, greenhouse gas emissions associated with global energy have increased once more,” said Juliette Davenport, President of the Energy Institute. “We are still going in the opposite direction of what the Paris Agreement requires.”
The report, published in partnership with KPMG and consulting firm Kearney, said that renewables, excluding hydro, met only 7.5% of global energy demand last year. This represents an increase of nearly 1% from the previous year, driven by record growth in wind and solar power. Solar generation increased by 25% in 2022 while wind energy production grew by 13.5% compared to the previous year.
However, the report found that the renewable energy boom was overshadowed by a modest rise in global energy consumption of 1.1% last year, compared to a 5.5% increase in 2021, which means burning more oil and coal to meet demand.
Global oil demand rose by 2.9 million barrels per day last year to an average of 97.3 million barrels per day for 2022, due in part to the return of global economic activity following the Corona pandemic, according to the Energy Institute.
Meanwhile, coal demand rose to highs not seen since 2014, rising 0.6 percent from 2021, driven by demand in India and China, according to the report.
Coal energy has grown in demand in line with record high gas prices in Europe and Asia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gas accounted for 24% of global energy use last year, down from 25% in the previous year, but gas production has remained relatively stable.
The Energy Institute warned that rising energy-related emissions risked derailing the goals of the Paris climate agreement unless global governments take urgent action, according to the report. Under the Paris agreement, emissions must be cut in half by the end of the decade, to avoid triggering catastrophic levels of global warming.
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