Deliveries of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline to European countries in February 2023 decreased three times by February 2022 and amounted to regarding 939,300 tons. This was reported by two Vedomosti sources familiar with the statistics of the Russian Ministry of Energy. According to them, the reduction in supplies was due to a drop in exports to Germany, Poland and Slovakia.
The Druzhba oil pipeline starts in the Samara region, then passes through Bryansk and is divided into two branches on the territory of Belarus. The northern branch runs through Poland to Germany, while the southern branch runs through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. In 2022, oil exports via the pipeline increased by 7% to 38.4 million tons (Vedomosti wrote regarding this on January 15).
Vedomosti sources note that in February 2023, Russia increased supplies only to the Czech Republic – by 55.8% to 405,000 tons. Oil supplies to Slovakia almost halved compared to February last year to almost 215,000 tons, and exports to Hungary decreased by 16% to 319,600 tons. At the same time, deliveries to Germany and Poland, which planned to abandon Russian oil, completely stopped in February of this year. In February, Germany received only the first trial batch of Kazakh oil, which is pumped in transit through the Druzhba, in the amount of 19,916 tons.
Against the backdrop of a decrease in oil supplies through the pipeline, Russian sea exports in February 2023 increased by 11.6% to 3.36 million barrels per day, Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Fuel and Energy Complex Technologies, notes, citing data from S&P Global Platts. At the same time, if in February last year, the largest volume of offshore oil supplies fell to the EU countries and the UK (1.89 million barrels per day), then in February 2023 China became the largest importer (2.31 million barrels per day) .
Russian oil deliveries via Druzhba, unlike maritime exports, were not subject to European Union (EU) sanctions, although the Polish authorities called for them to be extended to the pipeline as well. In 2022, Warsaw and Berlin announced their desire to stop importing Russian oil through Druzhba from 2023, but both countries eventually applied for pumping. Poland planned to receive 3 million tons of oil in 2023, said Nikolai Tokarev, president of Transneft, in December last year. In January 2023, Russia exported 500,000 tons of oil to Poland, but already on February 25, the CEO of the Polish oil company PKN Orlen, Daniel Obaitek, announced the suspension of supplies via Druzhba. The representative of Transneft then explained that the pumping was stopped because route orders with payment for transit were not issued.
The German authorities, in turn, agreed on the supply of oil from Kazakhstan via Druzhba. The first batch of raw materials was supposed to arrive in Germany in January 2023, but was sent only in February. In total, in 2023, Kazakhstan will supply Germany with regarding 1.5 million tons of oil through the pipeline, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said in January.
Germany began to reduce imports of Russian oil back in 2022. Over the year, deliveries decreased by 2% by 2021 to 15.1 million tons. Exports via Druzhba to Poland increased by 6% last year to 8.9 million tons, to Slovakia – by 0.3% to 5.2 million tons, to the Czech Republic – by 25% to 4.2 million tons, and to Hungary – by 45% to 4.9 million tons.
Finam analyst Alexander Potavin does not expect a long-term increase in supplies via Druzhba in 2023. He recalls that Germany and Poland have previously refused to import Russian oil via the pipeline, and Slovakia’s deferment from the embargo on such supplies is valid only until 2024. Ekaterina Krylova, managing expert of the PSB Analytics and Expertise Center, adds that Hungary is also discussing cooperation with Croatia to receive oil through the Adriatic oil pipeline.
Potavin explains the growth in oil exports to the Czech Republic by the fact that the country has a local hub for oil distribution, including to Slovakia. At the same time, the Czech authorities by February this year might not find new oil suppliers, the analyst said.
The press service of the Ministry of Energy forwarded Vedomosti’s request to “Transneft“. Vedomosti sent a request to this state-owned company, as well as to the largest Russian oil companies.
After the start of the NWO in Ukraine, Western countries imposed sanctions on Russian oil. On December 5, 2022, an embargo on offshore oil supplies from Russia to the EU came into force, as well as a price ceiling for it at $60/bbl. As a result, China and India became the largest importers of Russian oil, purchasing 86.25 million tons and 33.4 million tons, respectively, in 2022.
May Brent futures traded at $73.5/bbl on March 24, according to the ICE exchange. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have not exceeded $90/bbl. Twice the price of Brent fell below $80/bbl, and since mid-March, the strongest drop in quotations has continued. For example, on March 17, the price of Brent dropped to $72.97/bbl.