Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday and those of European gas, much more volatile, melted, investors believing that the possibility of a European embargo on Russian hydrocarbons has diminished despite the continued fighting in Ukraine.
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Around 11:40 am, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in May lost 6.81% to 119.26 dollars.
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in April fell 5.71% to 116.64 dollars.
The publication of a sharper drop than expected in commercial oil reserves in the United States did not slow down the decline in prices, in a market focused on Ukraine.
While new sanctions have been put in place by the European Union once morest Russia, the EU has so far ruled out an embargo on Russian hydrocarbons, an option adopted by the United States, or a fixed date for the end of imports oil companies, like the UK.
The benchmark for the European natural gas market, the Dutch TTF, fell 29% to 152.50 euros per megawatt hour.
The extreme volatility of the market no longer surprised investors: the price of gas has lost 56% since its peak reached on Monday at 345 megawatt hours, but remains up 116% since the start of the year.
At the beginning of the week, “the market had bet on the possibility that the Russian supply would disappear completely, either with a (European) embargo or by a halt to exports from the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by Russia. These scenarios are less likely, so the risk premium decreases a little,” Richard Gorry, an analyst at JBC Energy, told AFP.
“Russian gas exports continue at the same pace,” said Sindre Knutsson, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Conversely, a halt in Russian oil and gas exports would cause prices to soar, warns his cabinet, which estimates that oil prices might reach $240 in this worst-case scenario.
And a turnaround remains possible: “The risk of serious trade disruptions is high as long as the conflict continues,” Barclays analysts warn in a note.
