2024-08-15 13:11:00
(Central News Agency, Tokyo, 15th, comprehensive foreign news report) Japanese scholar Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, who has observed Taiwan’s political development for 30 years, wrote an article in “Nikkei Asia” today and pointed out that many U.S. political and foreign policy experts have loudly called for Taiwan to increase defense spending in recent years, but Washington’s response to Taiwan’s Excessive pressure may play into Beijing’s hands.
The article pointed out that former President Trump, who is vying for the presidency on behalf of the US Republican Party, recently told Bloomberg Businessweek: “Taiwan should pay for our defense. You know, we are no different than insurance companies.”
Elbridge Colby, a former Trump administration official, wrote an article in the Taipei Times in May arguing that Taiwan should increase defense spending from the current 2.5% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) to at least 5%. Coberg is basically saying that if this standard is not met, Taiwan should not count on U.S. support.
Such statements have sparked debate in Taiwan. Former President Ma Ying-jeou once said that the defense budget is equivalent to a “money pit bill” that will drag down Taiwan’s finances and will only benefit the U.S. military-industrial complex.
Ogasawara stated in the article that he agreed with Colbert’s view that Taiwan must strive to strengthen its defense capabilities, but was disturbed by the fact that some politicians in the United States did not consider the nature of Taiwan’s public opinion when discussing Taiwan’s security.
Ogasawara pointed out that defense capabilities depend not only on military spending, but also on the stability of the government and the determination of the people.
In 2008, Taiwan’s defense expenditure reached 3% of GDP, but after the eight-year term of the Ma Ying-jeou government, it dropped to 2.1% in 2016.
During the tenure of former President Tsai Ing-wen, military spending increased to 2.5% of GDP. However, if calculated in New Taiwan dollars, Taiwan’s defense budget has increased by 66% in the past eight years, from NT$365.8 billion to NT$606.8 billion. Therefore, it is not that Taiwan has not made efforts to increase its military expenditure.
Ogasawa pointed out in the original article that considering Taiwan’s party political structure, it will be difficult to significantly increase the defense budget in the short term.
He said that even if the current President Lai Ching-te’s government plans to increase military spending, the opposition parties may boycott it in the Legislative Yuan. A gradual increase in military spending appears to be a pragmatic option.
China’s Taiwan-seeking strategies include intimidation, infiltration of Taiwanese society, and interference in internal affairs. Authoritarian China attempts to influence Taiwan’s public opinion in order to weaken this democratic political system. The Chinese Communist Party has been trying to spread doubts about Taiwan’s beauty, aiming to create a perception that Washington is unreliable.
If the next U.S. government really tries to force Taiwan to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, it may cause turmoil within Taiwan, which may lead to the election of a more pro-China president in 2028. Ogasawara pointed out that the Chinese Kuomintang government is susceptible to pressure from China, which is detrimental to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
The article points out that the sense of crisis in Taiwanese society is indeed not strong. But this also has advantages, because Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attempts to threaten Taiwan have little impact on the people, and he can be called “the Taiwanese people’s crazy people.” If most Taiwanese voters are very sensitive to such matters, they may have been psychologically conquered by China.
Ogasawara said that on the surface, Taiwan seems to be a weak entity, wavering at the mercy of the United States and China. But in fact, the strategies of these two superpowers are also affected by Taiwan, and Taiwan should not be regarded as a pawn in the games played by major powers.
As the U.S. election approaches, domestic discussions on Taiwan in the United States will inevitably take American voters into consideration. But it is important that some influential people in the United States understand the subtleties and complexity of the Taiwan issue.
Ogasawara emphasized at the end of the article that if Washington begins to exert excessive pressure on Taiwan on national defense issues, it may play into Beijing’s hands. He emphasized: “What Taiwan needs is encouragement, not punishment.” (Translator: Liu Shuqin/Verification: He Hongru) 1130815
Ogasawara Yuzhi
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