2024-01-14 03:30:00
Javier Milei closed his first month in office, a kind of formal cycle that makes no more sense than tearing down the calendar, with terrible news that, however, he proposed to transform into positive information. His sleight of hand skills are more convincing to his followers than to the general public, who is beginning to grimace nervously in the face of an economic plan that for now has only liquefied income.
The 25.5% inflation measured by Indec, led by Marcos Lavagna, who continues in his position at the proposal of the president, has many ideological and propaganda interpretations. The president praised the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, for the number, ensuring that the projections anticipate a worse figure. The strategy of oversizing the scenarios so that any other data is a balm, still seems to work.
It would be intellectually dishonest to measure the first 30 days of Milei’s government by the inflation number, even more so when the annual cumulative figure was 211% and his administration only covered two-thirds of the measured month. The price minefield left by Alberto Fernández’s government cannot but be responsible.
However, the president made it clear: for him it was a good number, despite the fact that it doubled the November figure. Anyone would think that, despite its policies of releasing controls that encouraged price increases, it would have been better for its management to have another signal – on a data as sensitive as inflation – but there are no responsible criteria that can assign that responsibility. .
Maybe the Government knew it; At least he communicates by correcting the errors attributed to Mauricio Macri in this matter and took advantage of part of the relationship with his voters. -which usually lasts regarding 100 days- to accelerate a part of the economic plan for which, for now, only the impact on pockets is known. The promise is that you have to go through hard times to achieve a better future.
What the government should also know is that the inflation data, beyond ideological tug-of-war, will end with the time allotted to its management. That is why what happens in this matter in the coming months seems to be so important.
The presidential spokesperson, Manuel Adorni, confirmed that several more months of high inflation are expected. The point is how much higher. Many consultants agree that, if the inflation figure for February remains above 15%, the scenario might be very similar to the catastrophic projections that Milei himself made in his first speeches.
The new government showed many signs that made analysts debate whether they were strategy or clumsiness. In the immediate inflationary path there is data that seems to be very difficult regarding the numbers that the Caputo administration is trying to surf. Fuels, prepaid, fares and bus ticket They are already recorded for the January CPI, another piece of information that you may try – and to a certain point be right – to get rid of.
But it will be the final season of other people’s faults. That is why the February data, which is published in March, will be key, because that number will contain the first milestone of the destiny of economic policy, which he imports to Milei. The prices for the beginning of the school year and, in addition, the expected salary adjustments, may push some numbers on the shelves outside the official estimate.
It is true that not everything is inflation and the crusade that the Government is attempting in Congress demonstrates it. With contradictions, once more with the doubt between cunning and clumsiness, andThe Executive says that it will not make changes to the Omnibus Law and in parallel its ministers agree to corrections in almost all chapters. Something similar happens with the DNU/70 that suffers its fate, but in Justice.
However, if inflation does not fall there will be no paradise. Milei will not hold a referendum on his administration for dollarization or any other promise. The measure of success will be what you did regarding inflation; There is still room for it, but the start did not seem auspicious.
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