This year’s economic growth forecasts for major countries have been raised, but Korea’s has been revised down by 0.2%p from last November’s forecast.
According to the “OECD Interim Economic Outlook” of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced on Friday, the 17th (local time), Korea’s 2023 and 2024 growth rates are projected to be 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. . In the case of this year’s growth rate, this forecast was lowered by △0.2%p compared to the forecast for November 2022, and the growth rate forecast for next year was raised by +0.4%p.
The OECD predicted that Korea, along with Australia, would benefit from the rebound in China’s growth, and that the impact of tight financial conditions would be offset.
“Korea and Australia will benefit from the expected growth rebound in China, offsetting the impact of tighter financial conditions.”
The OECD predicted Korea’s inflation rate to be 3.6% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024. The inflation rate for this year was lowered by △0.3%p compared to the forecast for November 2022, but the inflation rate for next year was raised by +0.1%p.
|
Prospects by Major Domestic Institutions |
government(‘22.12) |
Bank of Korea(‘23.2) |
KDI(‘23.2) |
OECD(‘23.3) |
|
‘23annual growth rate(%): |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
|
‘23yearly inflation rate(%): |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
Meanwhile, the OECD predicted that the global economy would recover gradually with improved business and consumer sentiment, falling energy and food prices, and China’s complete reopening, while inflation would gradually slow down.
As a result, the global economic growth rate was raised to 2.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, +0.4%p and +0.2%p, respectively, compared to the November 2022 forecast. Inflation is expected to decline further from 8.1% last year to 5.9% this year and to 4.5% in 2024.
However, the OECD assessed that the improved outlook for global economic conditions is still on a “fragile” basis, and that upside and downside risks have recently been balanced, but downside risks are still somewhat dominant.
Geopolitical uncertainties such as the Russo-U.S. war, weakening food security in emerging countries, and deepening supply chain fragmentation are highly likely to act as deteriorating factors for growth and prices. I saw that uncertainty still remains.
In addition, downside risks include increased burden on households and businesses due to rapid interest rate hikes, financial institution instability (SVB bankruptcy, etc.) and steep decline in housing prices, risks of expanding debt and fiscal deficits in emerging countries due to rising global interest rates, and risks of energy supply shortages in Europe. did.